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Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082023
500 PM HST Sun Aug 13 2023
The low pressure system that NHC has been monitoring over the far
western portion of the east Pacific basin has become a tropical
depression. An ASCAT pass from several hours ago revealed that
the system has a well-defined circulation and recent infrared
satellite images indicate that deep convection has been persisting
near and to the west of the center. Based on the ASCAT data and
Dvorak estimates of T1.5 and T2.0 from TAFB and SAB, respectively,
the initial intensity is set at 30 kt.
The depression is moving west-northward at 12 kt. A westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days as
the system remains steered by a mid-level ridge to its northeast
and moves toward a weakness in that ridge. Beyond a few days, a
turn to the west is forecast as the weakening system moves in the
low- to mid-level flow. The models are in good agreement and show
this system moving well to the south of the Hawaiian Islands. This
forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.
The depression is in generally conducive conditions to strengthen
during the next couple of days while it remains over warm waters
and in a relatively moist and low wind shear environment. Beyond
that time, however, increasing shear, drier air, and slightly
cooler waters should cause a slow weakening trend. There is not a
significant spread in the intensity models and none of them show
this system reaching hurricane strength. The NHC intensity
forecast is in good agreement with the HCCA and IVCN models.
The depression should cross into the central Pacific basin by 1200
UTC.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/0300Z 11.4N 138.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 11.5N 140.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 11.6N 142.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 11.9N 145.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 12.4N 147.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 16/1200Z 13.0N 150.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 13.6N 152.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 13.6N 157.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 19/0000Z 12.9N 162.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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