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Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132023
200 PM PDT Thu Sep 21 2023
Kenneth is a sheared tropical cyclone. The small area of active
convection associated with the storm has been displaced over 90 n mi
from its exposed low-level center by southwesterly shear. This
deteriorating satellite presentation has caused the intensity
estimates to decrease today. Based on a blend of the latest
objective and subjective Dvorak estimates, the initial intensity is
lowered to 35 kt.
Recent satellite images indicate Kenneth has begun its northward
turn, and the initial motion is north-northwestward at 330/6 kt. A
generally northward motion should continue for the next couple of
days as the system moves within the flow between a mid-level trough
to the northwest and a mid-level ridge over central Mexico. There
were no major changes to the track guidance this cycle, and the
latest NHC forecast is similar to the previous prediction. While
simulated satellite imagery from the global models suggest Kenneth
could produce intermittent bursts of sheared convection during the
next day or so, the environmental conditions (stronger shear,
progressively cooler SSTs, and a drier and more stable airmass) are
not conducive for sustained convection going forward. Based on these
factors and recent satellite trends, this forecast shows additional
weakening with post-tropical/remnant low status in 24 h.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/2100Z 17.9N 125.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 19.2N 126.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 20.9N 125.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 23/0600Z 22.3N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 23/1800Z 23.4N 125.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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