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ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE OCT 8 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NARDA...LOCATED WELL TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

1. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF ACAPULCO MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND
THIS DISTURBANCE COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THIS
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF 
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A 
HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

FORECASTER BROWN

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