000
AXNT20 KNHC 162304
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Apr 17 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2250 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Meteo-France Gale Warning: Meteo-France forecasts gale-force N to
NE winds offshore Agadir now through 17/00 UTC. Rough to very 
rough seas will likely accompany these winds. For more details, 
refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their 
website https://wwwmiws.wmo.int.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and extends SW to
03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W to 00S46W. Scattered 
moderate convection is occurring from 01S to 04N between 07W and 
16W, and from 04S to 04N between 20W and 48W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends from Marco Island to 27N92W while a surface
ridge continue to build over the western half of the Gulf in the
wake of it. The related gradient between the ridge and the front is
producing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic wind flow throughout
the area, except for locally fresh NNE winds off the W Yucatan
Peninsula. Seas are slight basin-wide.  

For the forecast, the cold front will continue southward through 
early Thu producing gentle to moderate anticyclonic wind flow 
throughout the area into early Thu. Changes will be upcoming as 
low pressure begins to deepen in the Plains on Thu, and while a 
broad area of stronger high pressure builds west-southwestward 
toward the northern Gulf. The resultant gradient is expected to 
develop fresh to strong east to southeast winds along with mostly 
rough seas across the western half of the Gulf starting late Thu 
night. These winds will expand in coverage starting Fri covering 
most of the basin by Fri, including the Straits of Florida and 
Yucatan Channel. Winds will begin to diminish Sun. Elsewhere, 
pulsing fresh to strong northeast winds are expected each afternoon
and night offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern 
Bay of Campeche as a trough develops each day and migrates
westward.

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

The Caribbean is under the influence of a Gulf of America ridge
that extends to the NW Caribbean and the central Atlantic ridge
that extends to the northern waters of the remainder basin. The
pressure gradient between high pressure to the N and a 1006 mb 
low over NW Colombia is supporting fresh to strong NE winds 
offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, and moderate to
locally fresh NE to E winds elsewhere. Seas are slight over the NW
Caribbean, moderate over the central and eastern waters, and rough
to 8 ft over the basin.

For the forecast, strong to near-gale force northeast winds and 
rough seas are expected offshore of Colombia each night and 
morning through this weekend, then fresh to strong winds early 
next week. In the Gulf of Venezuela, pulsing strong winds are 
expected through Sat, then winds at mostly fresh speeds afterward.
Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will 
prevail over the basin through Thu, then begin to expand in 
coverage for the rest of the period. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on gale-
force winds offshore of Agadir and rough to very rough seas near
the Canary Islands.

A stationary extends from 31N45W southwestward to 24N60W. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are located near the tail of
the front S of 27N between the southern Bahamas and 60W. A cold
front extends from 31N69W to southern Florida near 26N80W. Winds
ahead and behind these fronts are moderate or weaker and seas
slight to moderate. The remainder of the tropical and subtropical
Atlantic is dominated by a 1026 high pressure system centered 
near 32N22W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower 
pressures in the tropics support moderate to locally fresh NE to E
winds and moderate seas across the vast majority of the basin, 
especially west of 23W. Otherwise, extending from the gales in the
Agadir region, fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas to 11 ft are
ongoing between the NW coast of Africa and the Canary Islands,
extending as far south as 19N and E of 23W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will reach from near
31N65W to the central Bahamas and Straits of Florida early Thu 
and from near 31N61W to the central Bahamas by Thu evening. The 
front will then become stationary over the eastern part of the 
area during the upcoming weekend as a large area of high pressure 
builds in behind it, with the parent high center to be located 
near 31N72W. A tightening pressure gradient between the high 
pressure and the front is expected to develop fresh to strong 
northeast to east winds behind the front south of about 26N 
starting Fri. These winds will expand in coverage going into the 
weekend. Seas east and northeast of the Bahamas will become rough 
beginning Fri. Winds and seas diminish over the southern part of 
the area early next week. Low pressure may possibly drop southward
near 55W Mon and Mon night, with associated fresh to strong north
winds and rough seas impacting some of the eastern zones. 

$$
Ramos