000
AXNT20 KNHC 041710
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Apr 4 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between strong high
pressure of 1030 mb located near Bermuda and the Colombian Low 
will continue to support fresh to near gale trade winds across 
the central Caribbean through Sat afternoon. Winds offshore of NW
Colombia are expected to briefly increase to gale-force tonight, 
with peak seas there building to 13 or 14 ft. 

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front moving across the 
north-central Atlantic will move into the discussion waters south
of 31N late Sat and reach from 31N40W to 29N55W by Sat evening. 
SW winds to gale force are likely within 90 nm ahead of the front 
north of 28N. Winds will diminish to below gale force by Sun 
morning as the front shifts southward. Looking ahead, even though 
the winds may gradually diminish, the front will be followed by 
large to very large NW swell that will envelop most of the 
Atlantic east of 60W through the middle of next week. This swell
will produce seas to 20 ft and higher across the northeastern
waters Sun through Mon.

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong late-season cold front 
will emerge off of the Texas coast Sat night. Fresh to near gale N
winds and rapidly building seas will follow the front over the 
western Gulf Sun and Mon with northerly gales possible near 
Tampico on Sun morning, and off Veracruz by late Sun afternoon. 
The cold front will extend from the Florida Panhandle to the 
eastern Bay of Campeche Mon followed by fresh to strong N winds.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center, at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: A Gale Warning issued by Meteo-
France for the marine zone of Madeira has been discontinued. For 
more details, refer to the Meteo- France High Seas Forecast listed
on their website: 
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2

...MONSOON TROUGH/INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Liberia near 06N10.5W and extends southwestward to 02N15W. The 
ITCZ continues from 01.5N16W to 01N30W to the coast of NE Brazil 
near 02.5S43W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
active from S of 04.5N between 13W and 38W and S of 06N between
45W and 56W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the western Gulf of America. 
Please refer to the Special Features section for more details. 

Fresh to strong SE winds continue across most of the basin today,  
between high pressure over the western Atlantic near Bermuda and 
1003 mb low pressure near the west Texas-northeast Mexico border.
This sustained return flow is producing seas of 8 ft and higher
across most of the waters W of 89.5W, with peak seas of 10-12 ft
over west-contral portions. Seas are 5 to 8 ft over the eastern 
Gulf. Fair weather prevails over the basin and no significant 
shower or thunderstorm activity is evident at this time. Fog
across the northern Gulf coastal waters has burned off this
morning, improving visibility there. 

For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between the Bermuda 
High and low pressure over Texas and the south-central U.S. will 
continue forcing fresh to near gale SE winds across the basin 
through Sat afternoon. The moist SE flow may allow for periodic 
areas of sea fog across the northern Gulf into Sat. A strong 
late- season cold front will emerge off of the Texas coast Sat 
night. Fresh to near gale N winds and rapidly building seas will 
follow the front over the western Gulf Sun and Mon with northerly 
gales possible near Tampico on Sun morning, and off Veracruz by 
late Sun afternoon. The cold front will extend from the Florida 
Panhandle to the eastern Bay of Campeche Mon followed by fresh to 
strong N winds. The front will weaken as it moves southeast of the
area Tue followed by weak high pressure over the northern Gulf. 
Winds and seas will diminish accordingly through Tue night in all 
but the far southeast Gulf where fresh winds and rough seas may 
persist. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the waters near the coast of 
Colombia. Please refer to the Special Features section for more 
details. 

Overnight scatterometer satellite data showed fresh to strong 
trade winds across most of the basin, with winds to near gale 
force occurring in the central Caribbean, offshore NW Colombia,
and in the Gulf of Honduras. Winds are assumed to have diminished
very slightly this morning. Recent altimeter satellite and buoy 
data shows seas are 8 to 13 ft over the central and west-central 
Caribbean. Outside of the immediate Gulf of Honduras, fresh to 
strong SE winds prevail across most of the NW waters west of 80W. 
Seas there are 5 to 9 ft. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds 
dominate the eastern basin, where seas are 6 to 9 ft. Shallow 
moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is moving westward across
the region producing isolated passing showers primarily N of 15N.
Scattered showers and moderate thunderstorms are observed across 
the SW Caribbean, south of 11N to the coasts of Costa Rica, Panama
and Colombia. 

For the forecast, a strong pressure gradient between the Bermuda 
High to the Colombian Low will continue to produce fresh to near 
gale trades across the Caribbean through Sat afternoon. Winds will
briefly reach gale-force off Colombia tonight. From Sat night 
through early next week, the Bermuda High will weaken, contributing
toward reduced winds over the basin. However, strong trades will 
still continue north of Colombia, south of Hispaniola, and over 
the Gulf of Honduras on Sun. Rough to very rough seas will 
accompany these winds. As the weakened Bermuda High shifts 
eastward Mon and Tue, trades across the Caribbean will be reduced
to moderate to fresh. A cold front may reach the northwest 
Caribbean Tue with winds shifting from southeasterly to northerly.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the far NE Atlantic waters east of
42W. Please refer to the Special Features section for more 
details.

A weakening cold front enters the Atlantic forecast waters along 
31N34W and continues to 25N55W and on to 27N63W. Fresh N to NE 
winds and 6 to 10 ft follow the front. Scattered moderate
thunderstorms are along the front E of 37W. The subtropical ridge
is anchored by 1030 mb high pressure west of Bermuda near 32N65W.
This pattern is supporting fresh to strong E to SE winds and 7 to
10 ft seas south of 25N and between 45W and the Bahamas. Mostly 
moderate winds and seas are noted elsewhere west of 35W. Farther 
east, a cold front has moved into Morocco this morning and is
followed by a reinforcing weak front from 31N11W to 30N26W. 
Moderate to fresh breezes follow the front and dominate east of 
35W, but with N swell producing seas 7 to 11 ft north of 14N and 
east of 38W, and 5 to 7 ft farther south. 

For the forecast west of 55W, a strong Bermuda High will continue
to force fresh to strong trades south of 25N through tonight. As 
the Bermuda High weakens Sat through early next week, fresh to 
strong trades will be restricted to the waters S of 22N, strongest
across the SE Bahamas and the Windward Passage. On Sat night, a 
large N swell will start impacting the waters east of 60W and will
subside through late Tue. Fresh to strong S winds will develop 
off the coast of northeast Florida Sun night and Mon ahead of a 
cold front moving through the southeastern United States. The 
front is forecast to move off of the coast Mon night, and reach 
from Bermuda to eastern Cuba by mid week, followed by fresh to 
strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas. 

$$
Stripling