000
AXNT20 KNHC 012311
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Feb 2 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: Fresh to strong winds will pulse to gale
force each night and early morning offshore of Colombia as a 
tight pressure gradient persists between ridging in the central 
Atlantic and low pressure over northwestern Colombia. Rough to 
occasionally very rough seas of are anticipated with these winds.
Gale force winds are expected tonight and Sun night while gale 
conditions are possible at night Mon through Thu. Seas are
forecast to build to 13 or 14 ft with the strongest winds tonight
into early Sun morning.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further 
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Liberia/Sierra 
Leone border at 07N12W and continues SW to 03N18W. The ITCZ 
continues from 03N18W to 00N35W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is occurring from the Equator to 01N
between 14W and 16W, and from 00N to 03N between 30W and 34W.
Similar convective activity is noted near 00N41W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from central Florida to the Bay of 
Campeche. A few showers are along the frontal boundary. Low 
level clouds, with patches of light rain, are baking up against 
the Sierra Madre Mountains in eastern Mexico, mainly S of 
Tampico. Fresh to strong NW winds are noted per scatterometer 
data over the western Bay of Campeche in the wake of the front. 
Seas are 8 ft within these winds. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to 
moderate winds prevail, with an area of moderate to locally fresh
N to NE winds S of 24N and W of the front to about 95W. Seas are
generally 3 to 5 ft, except 1 to 3 ft across the coastal waters.
High pressure of 1024 mb located over the NW Gulf follows the 
front. 

For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate by Sun. Fresh 
to strong winds in the SW Gulf will diminish to moderate speeds
by tonight. High pressure will build in the wake of the front, 
supporting gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas 
across the Gulf through the middle of next week. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section regarding a Gale Warning
over the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia.

The Atlantic ridge extends SW and reaches the Bahamas and the 
northern Caribbean Sea. The pressure gradient between the ridge 
and the Colombian low supports fresh to strong NE to E winds in 
the central and SW parts of the Caribbean, including the Gulf of
Venezuela. Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the eastern
Caribbean while moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds are
noted over the NW part of the basin. Seas are 8 to 12 ft in the 
south-central Caribbean, and 6 to 8 ft across the remainder of 
the central Caribbean just south of Haiti and Jamaica. Seas of 4 
to 7 ft are noted elsewhere, except in the lee of Cuba where seas
are in the 1 to 3 ft range. Patches of low level moisture, embedded
in the trade wind flow, are moving westward across the basin 
producing isolated to scattered passing showers. 

For the forecast, aside from the winds near the coast of Colombia
mentioned in the Special Features section, fresh trades will prevail
across the remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean through
the middle of next week. Pulsing strong winds are expected in the
central Caribbean, as well as through the Windward Passage and 
downwind of Hispaniola. Elsewhere, residual E swell merged with N
swell will support locally rough seas near the Windward and Leeward
Islands as well as the Atlantic passages into the Caribbean through
the middle of next week. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N73W to central Florida. A band of
mainly low clouds with possible showers is associated with the 
front. Elsewhere, the tropical and subtropical Atlantic continue 
to be dominated by a 1032 mb high pressure centered just W of the
Azores. Its associated ridge reaches the Bahamas. Fresh to strong
trades are noted around the souther periphery of the ridge, 
covering the waters south of 25N and E of 60W. Seas are mainly 
8 to 12 ft in these waters. West of 60W, trades are moderate or 
weaker with 4 to 7 ft seas. 

For the forecast, the cold front in the western Atlantic will 
progress eastward over the northern waters before stalling and 
dissipating Sun. Fresh to strong E winds and rough seas will 
prevail south of 22N through the middle of next week. North of 
22N, gentle winds and moderate seas are expected through the 
middle of next week. 

$$
GR