245 
AXNT20 KNHC 191709
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Apr 19 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1650 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning
for the AGADIR Zone. N winds to Force 8 will prevail from now
through 20/0600 UTC, with 10-12 ft seas. For more information,
please see the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST and WARNING issued by
Meteo-France at website:
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N11W, then continues
to 03N17W. The ITCZ extends from 03N17W to 01S50W. Scattered
showers are in the vicinity of both boundaries, with scattered
strong convection evident inland over Africa.

GULF OF AMERICA...

Strong high pressure centered near Bermuda extends across the Gulf
of America. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and
lower pressure over Mexico and Texas is producing fresh to strong
SE winds and 4-7 ft seas across most of the Gulf. In the NW Gulf
near 26N94W, peak seas are analyzed to 8 ft. Strong to near gale
force E winds and seas to 8 ft are noted in the Straits of
Florida. Scattered showers are evident on satellite in the W Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E winds will pulse across 
portions of the SW Gulf as a trough moves NW off the Yucatan 
Peninsula each afternoon and evening into Mon. Fresh to strong E 
winds and rough seas will persist in the Florida Straits into 
early next week. 

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A weak surface trough persists across the Virgin Islands, with a
few showers in the vicinity. The pressure gradient between the
Atlantic subtropical high and lower pressure over South America
results in fresh trades across the central Caribbean, with strong
trades detected by satellite scatterometer south of Hispaniola to
15N and in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia.
Seas in these areas of strong winds are 7-10 ft. Fresh trades are
also analyzed in the W Caribbean. Outside of the areas noted 
above, seas are 4-7 ft in the central and western Caribbean. The
eastern Caribbean is relatively calmer, with gentle to moderate
trades and 2-4 ft seas.

For the forecast, strong high pressure north of the basin will 
support fresh to strong NE winds across the central and western 
Caribbean through early next week before diminishing through the 
middle of next week. Near- gale force winds will pulse off 
Colombia during the overnight hours, accompanied by rough seas. 
Large northerly swell will impact the Mona and Anegada passages by
Sun. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

1020 mb low pressure is near 30N54W. A surface trough extends from
the low pressure to the Virgin Islands. Fresh to strong N to NE
winds prevail west of the low and trough, building 8-9 ft seas in
N swell across waters from 20N to 31N between 57W and 74W.
Elsewhere across the Atlantic, moderate to locally fresh trades 
and 4-7 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong NE to E winds and 
rough seas will continue through the weekend west of the
aforementioned surface trough from the Bahamas to the Greater 
Antilles. Winds and seas will slowly diminish west of 70W early 
next week, but closer to the trough, where weak low pressure will 
also meander, strong winds and rough seas could prevail. 

$$
Mahoney