000
AXNT20 KNHC 171000
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Mar 17 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1011 mb low pressure is analyzed
near 24N54W. Recent satellite derived wind data indicate gale 
force winds in the northern semicircle of the low, particularly 
from 25N to 29N between 50W and 55W. These winds are within a 
larger area of fresh to strong easterly winds that covers roughly 
the waters from 22N to 31N between 41W and 62W. These winds are 
the result of the pressure gradient between the low pressure and 
strong high pressure located N of the low. Gale conditions will 
likely last through tonight, then diminish to fresh to strong 
winds through Tue morning. This pattern will also support rough to
very rough seas east of 70W through mid week. The low will move 
toward the NW over the next 24 hours, then northward through mid- 
week while weakening.

W Atlantic Gale Warning: An occluded low is expected to develop in
the vicinity of a cold front by midweek. The front is already
moving across the W Atlantic, analyzed from 31N79W to 28N81W. Gale
conditions will begin on Tue night near 29N71W, then drift E 
through Wed as the system moves E. Rough to very rough seas will 
prevail with these winds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the Liberia/Sierra
Leone border near 07N12W and continues southwestward to 03N16W. 
The ITCZ extends from 03N16W to 01S30W to the coast of NE Brazil 
near 02.5S42W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 300
nm on either side of the boundaries. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends from 26N82W to 21N87W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted ahead of the front, affecting the Yucatan
Channel. This convective activity is also reaching the Yucatan 
Channel. High pressure of 1025 mb centered over the NW Gulf 
follows the front. Fresh to strong northwest to north winds and 
moderate to rough seas are noted in the wake of the front while 
gentle to moderate SW winds are moderate seas are occurring ahead 
of the front. Winds and seas could be higher near tstms. 

For the forecast, the front will continue to move southeast and 
away from the area this morning. Fresh to strong northerly winds 
behind the front will prevail though tonight. Looking ahead, high 
pressure will settle over the basin through mid week. As the high 
pressure moves toward N Florida, fresh to strong southerly return 
flow will set-up over the NW Gulf tonight into Tue. Looking ahead,
the next cold front is expected to enter the Gulf region by mid 
week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface ridge extends across the Bahamas and Cuba into the NW 
Caribbean while a cold front is moving across the SE Gulf of 
America and the Yucatan Peninsula. This pattern is allowing for 
fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean and 
gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are 5 to 7 ft over the NW
Caribbean and near the coast of Colombia, and 3 to 5 ft 
elsewhere. Scattered moderate convection prevails in the Yucatan
Channel ahead of a cold front. 

For the forecast, the cold front will enter the NW Caribbean this
morning. Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas will 
follow the front, which is forecast to reach from eastern Cuba to 
the Gulf of Honduras by tonight, and from the Windward Passage to 
near Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua on Tue before dissipating Tue 
night into Wed. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will prevail 
across the NW Carribbean through mid week. In addition, NE fresh 
to strong winds will pulse across southern Cuba, the Windward 
Passage, and south of Haiti through the same period due to a 
developing low pressure north of the area. Seas in this area will 
range from 4 to 8 ft. High pressure over the central north 
Atlantic combined with the Colombian low will support pulsing 
winds to fresh to strong speeds at night offshore Colombia 
throughout the forecast period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the central Atlantic associated
with a strengthening low pressure. Another Gale Warning will
develop in the W Atlantic by midweek in the vicinity of an
occluded low. Refer to the Special Features section for more 
details.

Aside from the gale areas, high pressure ridge extends across the
remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters. A cold front reaches 
the Canary Islands followed by moderate to fresh winds and 8 to 15
ft seas in NW swell, east of 35W. Moderate to fresh trade winds 
dominate the tropical Atlantic with seas of 5 to 8 ft. 

For the forecast west of 55W, as the above mentioned low moves 
NW over the next 24 hours, gale-force winds east of 55W will
prevail through tonight. Winds will then diminishing to fresh to 
strong through Tue morning. This pattern will also support rough 
to very rough seas east of 70W through mid week. Farther west, a 
strong cold front has pushed off the SE United States coast, with 
fresh to near-gale force winds and rough seas in its vicinity. The
front will reach from 31N68W to the Turks and Caicos and eastern 
Cuba Tue morning, and from Bermuda to Puerto Rico Wed morning. By 
mid week, a low pressure system may develop along this front 
supporting near-gale to gale force winds and very rough seas 
between Bermuda and the Bahamas. 

$$
ERA