000
AXNT20 KNHC 231025
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Apr 23 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0930 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 11N15W, and 
continues southwestward to 06N20W, where it transitions to the 
ITCZ and extends southwestward to near 03S42W. Scattered moderate
convection is seen from 00N-03N between 22W-33W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...
 
Ridging prevails across the Gulf. Fresh ENE winds in the SW Gulf
are being driven by a surface trough moving off the west coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula. Otherwise, moderate winds prevail over the
southern two-thirds of the Gulf with light to gentle winds to the
north. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in the southern basin and 2 to 4 ft in
the northern third.

For the forecast, high pressure centered NE of the area will bring
mainly gentle SE winds and relatively tranquil marine conditions
to the NE half of the basin into the weekend. The SW Gulf will 
experience moderate fresh east to southeast winds during this same
period, locally pulsing to strong off the NW Yucatan Peninsula 
each night as a diurnal trough affects the waters.

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and 
a 1009 mb Colombian low is forcing fresh to locally strong NE to 
E winds over the S Central Caribbean, over the Windward and Mona 
Passages, as well as downwind of Hispaniola. A surface trough just
east of the Lesser Antilles is disrupting the trades, causing
winds to only be gentle over the E Caribbean. Seas are 6-8 ft 
over the SW Caribbean and 3-6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure centered north of the basin will
support pulsing fresh to locally strong NE winds across the 
central and western Caribbean today. The high will gradually 
shift eastward which will loosen the pressure gradient and 
diminish winds through late week. Moderate winds and slight to 
moderate seas will then prevail over the weekend. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The surface low that had been near 25N60W has opened and become
part of the broader surface trough early this morning. This trough
is oriented along 60W between 20N and 30N. Over the northern
portion of the trough, the pressure gradient between it and the
subtropical ridge to the N is leading to fresh to strong E winds N
of 25N between 50W and 68W, along with rough seas. Scattered
moderate convection, mainly induced by upper level divergence on
the east side of the associated mid and upper level trough, is
present N of 25N between 50W and 60W, where some locally near-gale
force winds are likely in the stronger thunderstorms. Moderate to
fresh NE winds prevail over the Bahamas, Greater Antilles, and
Florida Straits, otherwise moderate or weaker winds dominate the
remaining areas W of the surface trough. To the E, widespread
moderate to fresh easterly trades dominate with seas of 5 to 8 ft. 
Areas E of 20W and N of 20N are seeing fresh to strong NE winds, 
locally near gale-force between the Canary Islands. Moderate or 
weaker winds and moderate seas are E of 20W and S of 20N.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned strong winds and
rough seas N of 25N and E of 67W will continue today, but 
gradually diminish starting tonight as the trough weakens and the 
pressure gradient relaxes into into the weekend.

$$
Konarik