754 
AXNT20 KNHC 300304
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Mar 30 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean through the 
coast of Guinea near 10N14W and continues southwestward to near 
03N16W. The ITCZ extends from 03N16W to 02S30W to 03S46W. 
Scattered moderate convection is active from 04N to 05N between
13W and 16W, and from 02N to 04N between 21W and 25W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak stationary front extends from the Straits of Florida 
northwestward the central coast of Texas. A surface ridge extends
from western Atlantic anchored by a 1031 mb high pressure east of
Bermuda westward toward the northeastern Gulf. Scattered showers 
and thunderstorms are active along and north of the front over the
north-central and northeast Gulf. Moderate to fresh SE winds and 
4 to 6 ft seas are noted across the basin. 

For the forecast, the surface ridge is shifting slowly eastward 
across the western Atlantic, allowing SE to S winds to diminish to
moderate to fresh speeds, and seas to subside below 8 ft this 
evening. A mid to upper-level low is triggering scattered 
thunderstorms in the north central Gulf and will shift eastward 
through tonight. A weak cold front is forecast to sink across the 
NW and N central Gulf late on Mon, and extend from the Florida Big
Bend to central Texas by Tue morning before dissipating. High 
pressure will then build westward across the Gulf Tue night 
through Thu to produce fresh to strong return flow across most of 
the basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The subtropical ridge extends north of the region, anchored by a
1031 mb high pressure area east of Bermuda. A tight gradient
persists between the ridge and 1008 mb low pressure over northeast
Colombia. A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed this 
pattern continues to support strong to near-gale force winds off
the coast of Colombia between Cartagena and Barranquilla. Recent
observations also confirm fresh to strong E winds along the Bay
Islands in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds
are noted elsewhere, except for gentle breezes over most of the 
northwest Caribbean. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in the area of strong to
near-gale force winds off Colombia, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere. A few
showers and thunderstorms are active between Haiti, Jamaica, and
Cuba, but no significant convection is noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the 1031 mb high pressure located east of 
Bermuda will drift eastward and gradually weaken through Mon. The
associated ridge will combine with the Colombian low to support 
winds pulsing to near gale force at night and during the early 
morning hours offshore of Colombia through Mon morning. Fresh to 
strong winds in the Windward Passage will persist through tonight.
Similar wind speeds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras and 
south of Hispaniola through early next week, and across the 
eastern Caribbean through Mon. Large E swell will impact the 
Tropical Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages through Wed, 
building seas 8 to 10 ft. Looking ahead, high pressure will again 
build across the Atlantic due N of the eastern Caribbean late Wed 
through Thu night to significantly strengthen the trade wind flow 
across most of the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N43W to 25N60W, where it is
dissipating toward the Turks and Caicos. A few showers and
thunderstorms are active northeast of the Turks and Caicos and
east of the southern Bahamas to the north of the dissipating
front. 1031 mb high pressure is centered east of Bermuda near 
32N57W. This pattern is supporting fresh to strong E winds mainly 
south of 27N and west of 45W, with 7 to 10 ft seas. Farther east, 
1011 mb low pressure is centered east of the Canary Islands near 
29N24W. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, fresh to 
strong N to NE winds, and 8 to 12 ft seas are noted within 90 to 
480 nm within the northwest semicircle of the low. Mostly 
moderate NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted elsewhere across 
the basin. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will drift 
slowly eastward and weaken through Mon, while the front becomes
east to west aligned along about 22N-23N tonight and gradually 
dissipates by Mon night. Expect fresh to strong NE to E winds and 
seas up to 12 ft N of the front this evening, begin to decrease 
later tonight through Sun as the high pressure shifts eastward and
weakens. Another cold front will move off the SE United States 
coast Tue and weaken quickly across the far NW zones by early Wed.
High pressure will then build across the region Wed night through
Thu night. 

$$
Christensen