000
AXNT20 KNHC 151016
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Mar 15 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Atlc Gale Warning: A low pres system is expected to develop in 
the central Atlantic beginning on Sun night. As the system 
intensifies, gale-force winds are expected on Mon across the 
northern semicircle of the low, mainly N of 26N between 49W and 
52W. Rough to very rough seas are expected with these winds. The 
low will move NW through mid- week while weakening.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Africa near 07N12W and continues southwestward to 01N26W. The 
ITCZ extends from 01N26W to 00N47W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from the Equator to 05N between 08W and 35W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Low pressure is steadily building across the Gulf area. Latest 
scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong SE to S winds across 
the central Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds prevail 
elsewhere. Seas are 3 to 5 ft N of 22N and W of 85W. Seas of 1 to 
3 ft are between the W coast of Florida and 85W, and in the Bay of
Campeche.

For the forecast, low pressure will continue to build across the 
basin ahead of the next front. Fresh to strong southerly winds 
will expand across the basin tonight ahead of the next frontal 
passage. The front will enter the NW Gulf this morning, then reach
from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche by Sun morning,
and move E of the Gulf Mon morning. Near-gale force southerly 
winds will likely develop ahead of the front today and off 
Veracruz Sun. Looking ahead, high pressure will settle over the 
basin Mon through mid week.  

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A ridge extends across the Bahamas and Cuba into the NW Caribbean
while low pressure dominates most of the Gulf of America. This 
pattern is allowing for fresh to strong E to SE winds over the 
Gulf of Honduras and the NW Caribbean mainly S of 18N and W of 
85W. Similar wind speeds from the NE and E are noted offshore 
Colombia. Moderate NE winds are observed per scatterometer data in
the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate trade winds dominate the
remainder of the basin. Seas are 3 to 5 ft with the strongest 
winds, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere. The proximity of a stationary 
front combined with an upper-level low is helping to induce some 
shower activity over Puerto Rico and regional waters as well as 
over the northern Leeward Islands. Elsewhere shallow moisture, 
embedded in the trade wind flow noted producing isolated to scttrd
passing showers.

For the forecast, high pressure over the NW Atlantic will build 
while it shifts SE to the central Atlantic waters. Fresh to strong
winds will pulse at night offshore Colombia through early next 
week. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected in the Windward
Passage and south of the Dominican Republic through the weekend. 
Fresh to strong SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras will expand to 
the remaining NW Caribbean W of 82W ahead of a cold front forecast
to move across the Yucatan Channel into the NW basin Mon morning.
Rough seas are expected with the strong winds preceding the 
front. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and moderate seas will be 
associated with the passage of the front, which is forecast to 
reach from eastern Cuba to NE Honduras by Tue morning, from the 
Windward Passage to NE Nicaragua Tue evening before dissipating 
late Wed. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning in
effect for the central Atlantic.

A cold front enters the Atlantic forecast area near 31N31W and 
continues SW to near 23N46W, where it transitions into a 
stationary frontal boundary that extends to 21N64W. Scattered 
showers thunderstorms are noted ahead of the front N of 25N. An 
area of cloudiness, with embedded showers is within about 250 nm N
of the stationary front between 52W and 60W. To the NW of the
stationary front, a trough is analyzed from 28N67W to 23N65W. 
Some shower and thunderstorm activity is E of the trough. The 
pressure gradient between the trough and high pressure N of the 
forecast region supports an area of fresh to strong easterly winds
from 23N to 29N between 55W and the trough axis. Mainly fresh 
winds are noted in the wake of the front with seas up to 15 ft. 

In the eastern Atlantic, a 1020 mb high pressure center is analyzed
at 25N27W, extending a weak ridge across much of the remaining 
subtropical and tropical Atlantic. Moderate trade winds and moderate
seas are noted across the tropical Atlantic except in the vicinity
of the Cabo Verde Islands where moderate to fresh NE wind are
occurring with seas of 6 to 8 ft. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the tail end of a stationary front 
is analyzed from 24N44W to 21N65W. Fresh to strong NE to E winds 
and rough seas to 9 ft are ongoing N of the front between 55W and 
64W. The front will lift N through the weekend while weakening. 
High pressure over the NW Atlantic will build while it shifts SE 
to the central Atlantic waters through early next week. The 
pressure gradient between the associated ridge and the remnants of
the aforementioned front will lead to the development of fresh to
strong winds north of 22N and E of the Bahamas this weekend. 
These winds will support building rough seas across E of the 
Bahamas. Looking ahead, A low pres system will develop E of the 
area, with increasing winds to gale-force possible mainly N of 27N
and E of 56W by Mon afternoon/night. To the W, a strong cold 
front will push off the SE United States coast early Mon preceded 
and followed by fresh to near-gale force winds. The front will 
reach from 31N68W to the Turks and Caicos and eastern Cuba Tue 
morning, and from Bermuda to Puerto Rico Wed morning.

$$
ERA