864 
AXNT20 KNHC 271446
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Apr 27 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1440 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough is primarily over land across western Africa,
ending near the coast of Senegal. The ITCZ extends from 06N15W to
00N30W to the coast of Brazil near 02S43W. Scattered moderate
convection is evident from 02N to 05N between 10W and 18W.

GULF OF AMERICA...
 
A weak pressure pattern continues across the Gulf this morning,
anchored by 1021 mb high pressure centered off the western 
Florida Panhandle near 29N86W. Weak troughs are analyzed along the
west coast of the Florida peninsula, and over the Bay of Campeche
in the southwest Gulf. This pattern is supporting gentle to 
moderate E to SE winds across the basin. Wave heights are 1 to 3 
ft in the northeast Gulf, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. No shower or 
thunderstorm activity is noted at this time across the basin. 
Land-based observations over southern Mexico indicate visibility 
of 2 to 5 miles due to smoke from local agricultural and forest 
fires, and this is likely impacting the near shore waters. 

For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf
waters through at least the middle of the week supporting gentle 
to moderate E to SE winds and moderate seas. Winds will pulse to 
fresh to strong speeds each evening over the east and central Bay 
of Campeche through the forecast period due to local effects 
related to a thermal trough coming off the Yucatan Peninsula. 
Fresh winds and moderate seas are forecast in the Straits of 
Florida Mon night through Wed night as high pressure located NE 
of Florida strengthens. By Monday night, SE winds are forecast to 
increase over the western Gulf and persist through mid-week.

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A broad mid to upper trough reaches from the western Atlantic,
across Cuba into the northwest Caribbean. Divergent southwesterly
flow aloft ahead of the trough is supporting deep-layer moisture
across the central and eastern Caribbean, along with scattered
showers and thunderstorms in the southwest Caribbean, north of 
Panama. Farther east, shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind
flow is producing isolated to scattered passing showers across 
much of the northeast Caribbean and adjacent islands. Drier
conditions are noted over the northwest Caribbean, under the
influence of the northern flow aloft west of the trough. At the 
surface, the pattern is influenced by relatively weak 1021 mb high
pressure north of the area near the northern Bahamas, and the 
resident low pressure off Colombia. This pattern is supporting 
gentle to moderate easterly flow across the basin along with 2 to 
4 ft seas, except moderate to fresh NE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas 
off Colombia.

For the forecast, the high pressure north of the basin combined 
with the Colombian low will support pulsing fresh winds at night 
in the Windward Passage, south of Cuba, and offshore Colombia, 
with moderate trade winds elsewhere. By Monday evening, winds will
pulse to strong in the lee of Cuba and in the Windward Passage, 
as high pressure north of the area strengthens. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Weak 1021 mb high pressure is analyzed over the western Atlantic
north of the Bahamas near 28N76W, just west of a surface trough
that extends northward from the central Dominican Republic toward
Bermuda. Divergent flow aloft is assisting the development of a
few thunderstorms east of the trough near 26N63W. Farther east, a
frontal boundary reaches from the eastern Azores Islands to 
29N50W. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate winds and 3 
to 5 ft seas west of 65W, and moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 
5 to 7 ft seas east of 65W. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough will drift 
eastward as a cold front moves south of 31N tonight, reaching 
from near 31N62W to northeast Florida by Mon morning, from 31N57W
to the northwest Bahamas by Tue morning, and from near 31N55W to 
the central Bahamas Tue evening before weakening. Moderate to 
fresh N to NE winds and moderate to rough seas will follow the 
front. 

$$
Christensen