000
AXNT20 KNHC 071050
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Jun 7 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall in the NW Caribbean and Hispaniola: Divergent flow
aloft and ample tropical moisture surging northward continues to 
generate a large area of heavy showers and thunderstorms affecting
the Gulf of Honduras, the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Jamaica, 
Hispaniola and the Bahamas. Dangerous lightning, rough seas, 
gusty winds and low visibility are likely ongoing in these regions.
The soils remain saturated, therefore, it is possible that more 
heavy rain may lead to flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous terrain. The rainfall for Hispaniola and Cuba will be
influenced heavily by daytime heating, the local sea breezes, and
the mountain upslope lifting. Mariners should exercise caution as
these conditions are forecast to continue through the weekend. 
Please, refer to bulletins and forecasts that are from your local 
weather forecast office for detailed information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 01N to
12N with axis near 40W, moving westward at about 10 kt. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 06N to 
11N and between 35W and 45W.

A tropical wave is just E of Brazil, extending from 01N to 11N
with axis near 50W, moving westward at about 10 kt. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09N and between 45W and 
57W.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean S of 14N with axis
near 71W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant deep 
convection is occurring in the Caribbean Sea associated with it.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W and continues southwestward to 05N23W. 
The ITCZ extends from 05N23W to 07N39W, then from 07N51W to 
08N49W, then from 07N51W to 07N59W. Aside from the convection
associated with the tropical waves, numerous moderate isolated 
strong convection is evident from 03N to 10N between 11W and 21W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient prevails across the basin between weak
surface ridging extending SW across Florida and the Straits, and
lower pressures over Mexico and the western Gulf. This pattern is
resulting in light to gentle variable winds and slight to moderate
seas this morning. Otherwise, hazy skies continue across the 
western Gulf and Bay of Campeche due to agricultural fires in 
southern Mexico and western Central America. Reduced visibilities 
are noted across coastal observation sites in the western and 
southern Gulf.

For the forecast, weak surface ridging will support mainly gentle
to moderate winds the next several days. Winds will pulse to 
fresh near the Yucatan Peninsula during the late afternoon and 
evening hours. Hazy conditions due to agricultural fires over 
Central America and Mexico will continue for at least the next 
couple of days, reducing visibility to around 3 nm at times, 
mainly over the SW Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for information about 
the heavy rainfall event in the NW Caribbean and Hispaniola.

The pressure gradient between the Atlantic subtropical ridge and 
lower pressures in northern South America result in moderate to 
fresh SE winds across the eastern, central and NW Caribbean. Seas
in these waters are slight to moderate with the highest seas being
in the central and eastern portions of the basin.

For the forecast, the mid to upper level trough extending from 
the E Gulf of Mexico to just E of the Bahamas will shift E-NE 
across the Atlantic through the weekend, wich will allow the 
continuation of showers and thunderstorms across the NW Caribbean,
the Windward Passage and Hispaniola through the weekend. A second
trough aloft may extend this shower activity over the NW 
Caribbean through early next week. High pressure located SE of 
Bermuda and associated ridge extending across the NE Caribbean 
will continue to support moderate to fresh trades across the 
central and eastern Caribbean through the forecast period, except 
locally strong winds pulsing at night tonight and Sat night. 
Moderate to fresh SE winds are also forecast for the NW Caribbean 
most of the forecast period. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level diffluent flow and ample tropical moisture are
supporting scattered heavy showers and tstms affecting the 
Bahamas and its offshore waters as well as the Great Bahama Bank. The
remainder of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, is under the 
influence of a 1019 mb high centered SE of Bermuda, which is
supporting gentle to moderate SE winds, except in the areas of
strong tstms. 

Farther east, a 1015 mb low pressure is located near 30N43W and a
cold front extends from the low to 23N54W, followed by a surface 
trough that extends to Puerto Rico adjacent waters. Moderate to 
fresh SW winds are occurring east of these features to 35W and 
north of 25N. Seas are 4-7 ft in the area described. 

A cold front is crossing the Canary Islands in the NE Atlantic,
but no significant convection is noted near the boundary. Moderate
N-NE winds and seas of 4-5 ft are evident behind the front.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, the middle to upper level trough 
extending from the E Gulf of Mexico to just E of the Bahamas will
continue to support showers and tstms across the Great Bahama 
Bank and the Bahamas offshore waters through Sun. High pressure 
centered SE of Bermuda is forecast to shift slowly E-NE through 
the weekend in response to a weak front that will move into the 
far NW waters Sat before stalling there and lifting north of the 
area Sun. 

$$
Ramos