021 
AXNT20 KNHC 140450
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Apr 14 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0435 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W and continues southwestward to 01N22W. 
The ITCZ continues from 01N22W to near 01S46W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is observed south of 06N and between
12W and 27W. 

GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure over the NE Gulf continues to dominate the basin,
supporting moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas south of
23N and east of 94W. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and
slight to moderate seas are found west of 94W. Elsewhere, moderate
or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, high pressure remains centered over the
north-central Gulf generally providing for light to gentle
anticyclonic winds across the basin, except for gentle to
moderate southerly return flow over the far western Gulf. The
high pressure will shift E to the western Atlantic by Mon,
allowing for the gentle to moderate return flow to increase
slightly before diminishing Tue. Winds will increase to fresh 
speeds Thu, except increasing to fresh to strong over the west- 
central Gulf Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A surface trough extends from Hispaniola to the SW Caribbean,
resulting in showers and isolated thunderstorms within 120 nm on
both sides of the trough axis. Generally dry conditions are found
in the remainder of the basin. The pressure gradient between the
high pressure to the north and lower pressures in NW Colombia
support fresh to strong easterly trade winds. Seas in these waters
are 6-9 ft. Fresh to strong N-NE winds and seas of 4-7 ft are
occurring in the Windward Passage, lee of Cuba and off Nicaragua.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas 
are prevalent.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades and rough seas off
Nicaragua will diminish on Mon. Fresh to strong winds will 
prevail in the lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and in the lee 
of Hispaniola through Tue as a high pressure center shifts across 
the Atlantic waters N of the area. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh 
trades in the south-central Caribbean will increase to fresh to 
strong starting Mon and expand in coverage through Tue night. 
Pulses of strong winds will then continue in this area each night 
through the forecast period. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the SW North Atlantic near 31N61W to off NE
Hispaniola. Scattered showers are occurring ahead of the frontal
boundary. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to
strong southerly winds ahead of the front to 55W and north of 27N.
Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. Moderate to fresh westerly winds
and seas of 5-8 ft are noted behind the front to 72W and north of
27N.

The 1030 mb high pressure system centered near 34N40W dominates
the remainder of the tropical Atlantic, sustaining moderate to
locally fresh easterly trade winds west of 35W. Seas in these
waters are 4-7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh N-NE winds and
moderate seas are present east of 35W. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extends from near
31N61W to 20N69W while high pressure continues to build on the 
wake of it. Fresh to strong winds are east of the front north of 
25N along with rough seas. The front will weaken as it reaches 
from near 28N55W, then stationary to the eastern part of 
Hispaniola Mon night. The cold front portion will shift E of 55W 
on Tue while the stationary portion weakens to a trough and shift 
W. The next cold front may enter the NW waters Tue night with 
moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas on either side of the 
front. This front will weaken over the central part of the area 
Thu, then become stationary over the eastern part Fri. Fresh to 
strong northeast winds will prevail south of about 25N and west of
60W, including near and in the Windward Passage Fri along with 
rough seas east of the Bahamas. 

$$
Delgado