339 
AXNT20 KNHC 190538
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Apr 19 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Senegal
just south of Dakar, then run south-southwestward to 06N20W. An 
ITCZ continues west-southwestward from 06N20W across 00N31W to 
near Sao Luis, Brazil. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is evident up to 150 nm along either side of the ITCZ
between 20W and 40W, and south of the monsoon trough from 03N to
05N between 10W and 18W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A strong ridge of high pressure reaches southwestward from
northern Florida to near Tampico, Mexico. Light to gentle winds
and seas of 1 to 3 ft are seen at the northeastern Gulf. Moderate
to fresh ENE to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas dominate the north- 
central Gulf and Bay of Campeche. Fresh to strong E to SE winds
with seas at 6 to 8 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf, including
the Florida Straits.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will pulse offshore of
the Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche through 
this weekend as a trough develops daily and moves westward. 
Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong SE winds will spread across 
much of the basin as the pressure gradient increases between low 
pressure over the Southern Plains and high pressure east of 
Florida. Seas will also build through the weekend. Conditions will
gradually improve next week as the pressure gradient relaxes. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

The southwestern end of a surface trough is triggering widely
scattered showers near Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands.
Otherwise, a relatively fair trade-wind regime continues for the
rest of the Caribbean Basin. Tight gradient between a strong
surface ridge near 28N75W and 1007 mb low over northwestern 
Colombia is sustaining strong to near-gale NE to ENE winds and
seas of 8 to 10 ft at the south-central basin. Fresh to strong NE
to ENE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas dominate the north-central basin,
including the Windward Passage and lee of Cuba. Gentle to moderate
with locally fresh ENE to E winds and 3 to 6 ft seas prevail 
elsewhere in the Caribbean Basin.

For the forecast, the strong surface ridge will support fresh to 
strong NE winds across the central and western Caribbean through 
early next week before diminishing through the middle of next 
week. Near-gale force winds will pulse off Colombia during the 
overnight hours, accompanied by rough seas. Large northerly swell 
will impact the Mona and Anegada passages by Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front reaches southward from the central Atlantic
across 31N53W to near 28N56W, then continues southwestward as a 
surface trough through a 1017 mb low near 26N57W to near the
Virgin Islands. Scattered moderate convection is flaring up near
the front and low, north of 24N between 52W and 57W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is found near and up to 200 nm east
fo the remaining surface trough. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted
north of 27N between 70W and the Florida coast/northwest Bahamas.
Otherwise, fresh to strong NE to E winds and 7 to 10 ft seas
dominate north of 20N and west of the aforementioned stationary 
front and surface trough. To the east, north of 27N between 35W 
and the front/trough, gentle to moderate ENE to SE winds and seas
at 5 to 7 ft exist. From 05N to 27N between 35W and trough/Lesser
Antilles, moderate to fresh with locally strong NE to E winds and
5 to 8 ft seas persist. Gentle to moderate ENE winds and seas at 4
to 6 ft prevail for the remainder of Atlantic Basin west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, tight pressure gradient between the
aforementioned low/surface trough and a 1030 mb high northwest of
Bermuda will support fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas
through the weekend from the Bahamas to the Greater Antilles. 
Winds and seas will slowly diminish west of 65W early next week. 
Closer to the low/trough, the strong winds and rough seas could 
prevail, especially if the low deepens slightly.

$$

Chan