000
AXNT20 KNHC 272034
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Dec 28 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Gale Warning and Significant Swell Event: Low
pressure of 1012 mb is centered near 30N57W, with cold front 
extending SW to near 24N67W. The low will quickly move eastward 
and merge with a 1012 mb low pressure that is near 28N52W. The 
merged low pressure will deepen with northerly winds increasing 
to near gale to gale- force Sat, roughly north of 26N between 53W
and 57W. Seas with these gale winds will build to 10 to 15 ft. 
The low pressure is forecast to transition to an occluded system 
and lift northeastward into the north-central Atlantic Sun through
Tue. Winds will diminish below gale- force on Sunday, with the 
swell generated from the gale winds maintaining seas of 12 to 13 
ft over the waters north of 20N between 25W and 55W into the 
middle part of next week. For more details please refer to the 
latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane 
Center at the website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 05N03W to
04N05W. The ITCZ continues from 04N05W to 05N40W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 00N to 08N between 21W and 34W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A relatively weak pressure is over the basin as a weak as broad 
ridge stretches southwestward from the eastern United States to 
the eastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds are found over the
waters E of 90W, with gentle winds W of 90W. Seas are in the 4-6
ft range over the NE Gulf and 2-4 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, Fresh E to SE winds will develop in the Florida
Straits this evening, with moderate to locally fresh SE winds 
expanding over the eastern Gulf by early Sat. Elsewhere, moderate
to locally fresh SE winds will develop across the western Gulf 
Sat morning ahead of a weakening cold front moving through the 
south-central United States. The front will enter the northwest 
Gulf Sat night and weaken as it moves southeastward this weekend 
before dissipating over the central Gulf early next week. Looking 
ahead, another cold front will enter the basin next Tue and move 
into the central Gulf through midweek. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gentle to moderate winds prevail over much of the Caribbean,
except over the NW Caribbean where gentle winds prevail. Seas are
in the 4-6 ft range over much of the Caribbean, except the NW
Caribbean where seas are in the 3-4 ft range. 

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh trade winds will 
prevail across central and eastern portions of the basin this 
weekend. The strengthening pressure gradient between a building 
ridge in the western Atlantic, strengthening low pressure in the 
central Atlantic and low pressure in the south-central Caribbean 
will promote locally strong NE winds through the Windward Passage 
and south of Hispaniola tonight through Sun morning. These winds 
will diminish early next week. Looking ahead, building high 
pressure north of the area will support increasing winds and seas 
across the basin by the middle of next week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details about an
upcoming gale event that is forecast to begin on Sat afternoon.

A 1012 mb low is centered near 30N57W, with cold front extending
SW to near 24N67W. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 8-10 ft are
west of the front to near 68W. Moderate to fresh winds are over 
the remainder of the waters W of 60W, with seas of 5-8 ft. A
stationary front extends over the waters from 31N37W yo 25N44W.
Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 7 ft, are within 120 nm east
of the front. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 5-7 ft,
prevail over the remainder of the discussion waters. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the low will strengthen and move 
eastward this weekend. A wide swath of fresh to strong N to NW 
winds will occur surrounding the low, with these winds occurring 
north of 25N between 55W and 68W by this evening, and north of 21N
between 55W and 65W by Sat morning. Gale force winds are expected
Sat afternoon into very early Sun north of 27N near 55W. Rough 
seas will accompany this system, and seas in excess of 12 ft will 
occur near the strong winds. These winds and seas will shift east 
of 55W through late Mon as the low pressure drifts eastward. 
Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds will prevail 
north of the Greater Antilles and west of the low pressure system 
this weekend, along the periphery of high pressure moving off the 
coast of the United States. Looking ahead, expect increasing S to 
SE winds and building seas off northeast Florida late Sat through 
Sun night ahead of cold front approaching the region over the 
southeastern United States. 

$$
AL