361 
AXNT20 KNHC 292244
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue Apr 29 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2130 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough axis enters the eastern Atlantic through the 
west coast of Africa near 12N17W, and continues south- 
southwestward to 05.5N18W to near 05N22W. The ITCZ then continues 
from 05N22W to 02.5N41W to 05.5N47W to the coast of Brazil near 
03N51W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed 
from 02N to 07.5N between 10W and 31W, and south of 05.5N between 
32W and 47W. 

GULF OF AMERICA...
 
A 1027 mb high pressure extends a ridge from offshore the Mid- 
Atlantic states southwestward into the northern Gulf. Mostly dry 
and stable conditions remain in place over the basin. Scattered 
afternoon showers and thunderstorms are observed along the coast 
and across the nearshore coastal waters of southwest Florida, from
Boca Grande to the Everglades National Park. Elsewhere skies are 
mostly fair and rain free across the basin. Moderate to fresh 
east to southeast winds prevail across the Gulf. Seas are in the 
range of 3 to 5 ft, except less than 3 ft NE portions, and up to 6
ft in the Florida Current north of Cuba.
 
For the forecast, the high pressure northeast of the Gulf will 
force generally moderate to fresh E to SE winds across forecast 
waters for the next few days. E winds will pulse to strong north 
of the Yucatan peninsula and over the Bay of Campeche nightly 
through Thu night, in association with a diurnal trough. 
Additionally, E winds will pulse to strong over the Florida 
Straits tonight and tomorrow night. Winds will diminish across the
Gulf Fri into the weekend. Looking ahead, a weak cold front may 
reach the NE Gulf Sat night.

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

Scattered moderate convection is occurring in the far SW Caribbean,
S of 11.5N between the coasts of Colombia and southern Nicaragua,
and in the vicinity of the East Pacific monsoon trough. Scattered
passing showers dot the waters of the central and eastern 
Caribbean to the north of 14N. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds are
occurring across much of the central, SW and NW Caribbean, where 
seas are 4 to 6 ft. Fresh to strong NE winds are found offshore of
NW Colombia to eastern Panama where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Winds 
across the E Caribbean are gentle to moderate with seas around 3 
ft.

For the forecast, the Bermuda High north of the basin will combine
with the Colombian Low to support pulsing fresh to strong trades 
at night over the Windward Passage and south of Cuba through Thu 
night. Strong NE winds are expected near the coast of Colombia
tonight. Elsewhere, tranquil conditions should prevail over the 
forecast waters through the end of the week as high pressure north
of the area weakens and retreats to the NE. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is analyzed from 31N56W to 24.5N69W to Andros
Island, Bahamas near 24.5N78W. Scattered to locally numerous
showers and a few thunderstorms are along the entire length of the
front. A 1027 mb high behind the front is offshore of Cape
Hatteras, and is promoting mostly fresh N to NE winds behind the
front and into the Bahamas and well offshore of NE Florida. Seas 
are 6 to 8 ft in N swell except 4 to 5 ft offshore of NE Florida. 
A persistent trough resides east of the front, from 30N55W to the 
U.S. Virgin Islands. Light to gentle winds are generally on either
side of the trough. Scattered showers are occurring from the NE 
Caribbean northward to 23N on either side of the trough. Scattered
to locally numerous showers and moderate thunderstorms are to the
east of the trough, N of 20N and between 47W and 58W. This 
activity is supported by convergent surface winds occurring ahead 
of a broad upper-level trough across the western Atlantic. Farther
east, a cold front is moving into NW Africa and extends from 
31N10W to 23N19W. Scattered showers and elevated thunderstorms are
occurring ahead of the front N of 19N and E of 22W. A 1029 mb 
high is centered over the eastern Atlantic between the two frontal
systems, near 36N35W. The pressure gradient between the high and 
the eastern front is producing a large area of strong N to NE 
winds from 19N to 29N E of 34W, where seas are 8 to 12 ft in N 
swell. Across the Atlantic waters S of 19N, the associated ridge 
is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds between 25W and 55W,
where seas are 6 to 8 ft in NE swell. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will drift
southward across the Bahamas tonight and gradually dissipate. 
Fresh N to NE winds should continue through tomorrow night N
and NE and in the lee of the Bahamas. As the Bermuda High 
following the front weakens, winds across the forecast waters 
should diminish to moderate or weaker speeds on Thu and Thu 
night. Remnants of the front should develop into a trough 
northeast of the Leeward Islands and will force fresh NE winds 
north of 27N and east of 65W from Fri morning into the weekend. 
Looking ahead, a weak cold front may emerge off of the coast of NE
Florida and Georgia on Sun.

$$
Stripling