000
AXNT20 KNHC 130433
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Apr 13 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0425 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Guinea near 11N15W and continues southwestward to 02N20W. The 
ITCZ extends from 02N20W to near 02S44W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is observed south of 08N and east of
27W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

Weak high pressure dominates the Gulf of America, supporting
moderate to fresh northerly winds and moderate seas east of 85W
and in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Moderate to occasionally 
fresh southerly winds and slight seas are noted off Tamaulipas and
southern Texas. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, moderate winds over the E Gulf will diminish through
Sun. High pressure will build across the Gulf with moderate to fresh
S return flow developing over the W Gulf Sun and Mon before diminishing.

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A surface trough remains extended from eastern Hispaniola to the
SW Caribbean. A combination of this trough and divergence aloft
supports scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms impacting
Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, Jamaica, Panama and Costa Rica. Heavy
downpours are likely, which may cause localized flooding. Drier
conditions prevail in the rest of the basin. 

Fresh to strong northerly winds and seas of 4-8 ft are found west
of 80W and south of 16N. Moderate to locally fresh northerly 
winds and slight to moderate seas are present elsewhere west of 
80W. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas 
are noted across much of the central and eastern Caribbean. 
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas 
prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and rough seas off Nicaragua 
will continue through the weekend before diminishing on Mon. Fresh
to strong winds will develop in the lee of Cuba, the Windward 
Passage, and in the lee of Hispaniola Sun night through Tue as a 
high pressure center shifts across the Atlantic waters N of the 
area. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades will prevail in the 
south-central Caribbean through the weekend before strengthening 
by early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from a 1009 mb low pres near 34N71W to
the central Bahamas and central Cuba. A few showers are noted
ahead of the boundary, especially north of 28N. Moderate to
locally fresh NW winds are found behind the frontal boundary,
along with seas of 4-7 ft. An active surface trough and 
divergence aloft continues to produce scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms from Bermuda to Hispaniola, especially 
between 62W and 75W. 

The rest of the basin is under the dominance of a 1031 mb high 
pressure system centered near 35N40W. The pressure gradient
between this ridge and the aforementioned surface trough result 
in fresh to strong southerly winds north of 25N and betwen 57W and
67W. Moderate seas are found in these waters. Moderate or weaker 
winds and moderate seas are prevalent in the rest of the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front over the NW waters will
progress across the forecast waters through the forecast period. 
Moderate to fresh winds will prevail on either side of the front 
north of 25N, reaching strong speeds E of the front and N of 29N 
tonight. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. The 
next cold front may enter the NW waters Tue night with moderate to
fresh winds on either side of the front. 

$$
Delgado