612 
AXNT20 KNHC 312309
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Feb 1 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: Strong to near gale force winds will pulse 
to gale force off of Colombia each night and morning through the
middle of next week as a tight pressure gradient prevails between
low pressure over Colombia and high pressure in the western Atlantic.
Rough to localized very rough seas are expected near the strongest
winds. Buoy 42058 located near 14.5N75W is reporting seas of 11
ft.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends from the Florida 
panhandle to near Veracruz, Mexico. The front will shift eastward
before stalling and dissipating from south Florida to 22N91W to 
the Bay of Campeche this weekend. Fresh to strong winds west of 
the front over the SW Gulf will briefly increasing to minimal 
gale force off Veracruz early this evening. Rough to locally very
rough seas will accompany these winds. 

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further 
details. 

Gale Warning E of 35W: The most recent scatterometer data confirmed
the presence of gale force winds in the Meteo France marine zones
of Agadir and Tarfaya. Gale conditions are forecast to persist 
there until 01/0300 UTC. 

Please refer to the website:
https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Liberia
near 06N10W and continues SW to near 03N15W. The ITCZ extends from
03N15W to 01N30W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from the Equator to 04N between 30W and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section regarding a Gale Warning
in the SW Gulf. 

A cold front is moving across the Gulf waters and extends from the
Florida panhandle to the near Veracruz, Mexico. Fresh to strong 
NW to N winds are in the wake of the front across the west-central
and the SW Gulf with seas of 7 to 10 ft. Moderate to fresh NW to
N winds are noted elsewhere behind the front with seas of 5 to 7
ft. A ridge dominates the remainder of the Gulf region producing
gentle to moderate SE to S winds with seas of 4 to 6 ft, except 
1 to 3 ft across the coastal waters of W Florida. Moderate to 
fresh SE winds are seen per scatterometer data across the Straits
of Florida where seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range. A band of
showers and thunderstorms is associated with the front mainly N
of 26N. A few thunderstorms are flared-up near the front over the
SW Gulf. 

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will shift eastward
before stalling and dissipating from south Florida to 22N91W to 
the Bay of Campeche this weekend. More information about this
system in the Special Features section. High pressure will build
in the wake of the front, supporting gentle to moderate winds and
slight to moderate seas across the Gulf this weekend into early 
next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section regarding a Gale Warning
over the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia.

A ridge over the western Atlantic reaches the Greater Antilles. 
The pressure gradient between the ridge and the Colombian low 
supports fresh to strong NE to E winds in the central Caribbean,
including the Gulf of Venezuela, the Windward Passage and the 
waters between eastern Cuba and Jamaica. Strong to gale force
winds are observed per scatterometer data within about 120 nm 
off the coast of Colombia. Moderate to fresh winds prevail 
elsewhere across the basin. Seas are 8 to 12 ft in the south-
central Caribbean, and 6 to 8 ft across the remainder of the 
central Caribbean just south of Haiti and Jamaica. Seas of 4 to 7
ft are noted elsewhere. Patches of low level moisture, embedded 
in the trade wind flow, are seen across the basin producing 
isolated to scattered passing showers, more concentrated between
Jamaica and the Cayman Islands.

For the forecast, aside from the winds near the coast of Colombia
mentioned in the Special Features section, widespread moderate 
to fresh trades will prevail across much of the Caribbean E of 
80W, with winds pulsing to strong speeds across the central 
Caribbean. Rough seas are expected across the central and 
southwestern Caribbean, with localized very rough seas near the 
strongest winds. Elsewhere, residual E swell in the tropical 
Atlantic waters will combine with a N swell this weekend, 
supporting locally rough seas east of the Windward and Leeward 
Islands and their passages into the Caribbean through the middle 
of next week. Moderate seas will prevail across the remainder of 
the basin. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front stretches from 31N44W to 25N52W where it becomes a 
shear line that continues SW to near 20N64W, then westward 
across the waters just N of Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic. A
band of mainly low clouds, with possible showers is related to 
the front and shear line. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are 
within about 270 nm NW of the shear line with seas of 7 to 8 ft. 
Higher seas of 8 to 12 ft in NW swell dominate roughly the waters
N of 28N between 45W and 67W, and are associated with a 
dissipating frontal boundary. High pressure of 1031 mb located NE
of Bermuda near 34N57W follows the main front. Its associated 
ridge extends SW toward the Florida Peninsula, the Bahamas and 
the Greater Antilles. E of the front, another 1036 mb high 
pressure located about midway between the Azores and the Madeira
Islands dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast area. 
Under this weather pattern, fresh to strong NE to E winds are 
noted from 10N to 25N E of 40W. Similar wind speeds are in the 
vicinity and between the Canary Islands. An altimeter pass 
indicated seas of 12 to 14 ft between the eastern Canary Islands 
and the coast of Africa likely associated with gale force winds 
there. Seas of 8 to 12 ft are occurring across most of the waters
E of 35W with the highest seas NE of the Cabo Verde Islands.

For the forecast, building high pressure over the western Atlantic
will support increasing moderate to fresh E to NE winds and 
building seas north of 20N tonight. A tightening pressure gradient
between the aforementioned ridge and low pressure moving across 
the eastern United States will lead to fresh to strong S to SW 
winds offshore of Florida, generally north of 28N and west of 
65W, through Sat morning. Winds will diminish by Sat afternoon 
in this region as the low moves offshore and lifts to the northeast.
Elsewhere, fresh to strong E winds and rough seas will continue 
south of 22N through the beginning of next week. Gentle to moderate
winds and moderate seas are forecast for the waters north of 22N
Sun into early next week. 

$$
GR