169 
AXNT20 KNHC 290353
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Mar 29 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to near 
02N20W. The ITCZ extends from 02N20W to 00N30W to 02S44W along the
coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm
south of the monsoon trough between 15W and 20W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A complex mid to upper level low continues to move across the
lower Mississippi Valley this evening, supporting a squall line in
the north central Gulf, to the south of Louisiana, and additional
thunderstorms along the coast of Texas. A surface ridge extends
from 1031 mb high pressure centered over the western Atlantic 
near Bermuda to the central Gulf. The gradient between the ridge 
and a trough over Mexico is supporting a large area of fresh to 
strong E to SE winds across all but the far southwest Gulf. Recent
buoy data confirms moderate to rough seas accompany these winds. 
This includes fresh to strong E winds over the Straits of Florida,
supporting seas perhaps as high as 9 ft. 

For the forecast, the squall line will likely weaken through the
morning. The surface high pressure across the basin will drift 
slowly eastward across the western Atlantic through the weekend, 
allowing winds to diminish to moderate to fresh speeds by Sat 
afternoon, with seas then subsiding below 8 ft by late Sat. A cold
front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf on Mon, and extend from 
the Florida Big Bend to NE Mexico by Tue morning before 
dissipating.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds persist across portions of the Caribbean
tonight, particularly off the coast of Colombia between Cartagena
and Barranquilla, and in the Gulf of Venezuela where winds are
probably reaching near-gale force. These winds are due to a 
strong subtropical ridge situated north of the region, anchored by
1031 mb high pressure near Bermuda. Fresh to strong NE to E winds
are evident through the Windward Passage, the lee of central 
Cuba, and across the Bay Islands in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate
E winds are noted elsewhere across the Caribbean. Rough seas 
likely accompany the near-gale force winds off Colombia. Moderate
seas are noted elsewhere. No significant convection is evident
across the basin at this time.

For the forecast, the 1031 mb high pressure near Bermuda will 
drift slowly eastward through the weekend, and combine with the 
Colombian low to continue to support winds pulsing to near-gale 
force at night and during the early morning hours offshore of 
Colombia through Mon morning. The fresh to strong winds in the lee
of Cuba in the Windward Passage will persist through Sat morning.
Similar wind speeds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras and 
south of Hispaniola through early next week, and across the 
eastern Caribbean Sat evening through Mon morning. Large E swell 
will impact the Tropical Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages 
this weekend through Wed, building seas 8 to 10 ft.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 1008 mb low pressure well north of the
area near 41N45W to 31N51W to 26N60W, where it becomes a
stationary front and extends to near the Turks and Caicos Islands.
A few clusters of showers and thunderstorms are noted within 60 nm
to the west of the front. Recent scatterometer satellite and buoy
data indicate a large area of strong to near- gale force winds 
persists west of the front, to the south of 1031 mb high pressure 
centered near Bermuda. Concurrent altimeter satellite and buoy
data also show 8 to 12 ft west of the front, in the open waters
outside of the Bahamas. Farther east, a complex low is centered
near and to the west of the Canary Islands, supporting fresh to 
strong N winds and 8 to 10 ft seas mainly north of 23N between 21W
and 25W. Fresh trade winds and seas to 8 to 9 ft are active in 
the tropical Atlantic west of 40W. Moderate winds and seas are 
noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the 1031 mb high will drift slowly 
eastward through the weekend, as the front moves SE and gradually 
weakens, and becomes E to W aligned along about 22N-23N by late 
Sat. Expect fresh to strong NE to E winds and building seas up to 
12 ft N of the front. Winds and seas will start to decrease Sat 
night through Sun as the high pressure shifts eastward of Bermuda 
and weakens through the middle of next week. Another cold front 
will move off the SE United States coast by early Tue and weaken 
quickly across the far NW zones by early Wed.

$$
Christensen