000
AXNT20 KNHC 011005
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Apr 1 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE... 

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean through the 
coast of Guinea near 11N15W and southwestward to near 03N20W, 
where it transitions to the ITCZ to 03S30W to near coast of Brazil
at 04S37W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 01N to 03N
between 05W and 25W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A portion of a stationary front extends over the coast of Texas. 
To the SW, the typical thermal trough is analyzed over the Yucatan
Peninsula. Elsewhere, the subtropical ridge extends from the 
western Atlantic across the Florida Peninsula to the central Gulf.
This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh winds with moderate seas
along the northern western coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula, but 
mostly gentle breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas elsewhere across the 
Gulf. Platforms over the northwestern and north-central Gulf are 
again indicating areas of sea fog, with visibility of 2 to 4 
miles. 

For the forecast, the surface trough prevails over the Yucatan Peninsula
with fresh SE to NE winds over the Bay of Campeche. Areas of 
dense fog has developed in the NW Gulf, with visibilities below 1 
sm expected at times through the morning hours. A similar pattern 
is expected tonight. Elsewhere, fresh to strong SE to S winds will
develop tonight across much of the basin west of 85W, as the 
pressure gradient tightens in the area. Building rough seas are 
expected in this region Wed morning through late week. East of 
85W, moderate SE winds tonight will strengthen to fresh to strong 
speeds Wed into Thu, including through the Florida Straits.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between strong high pressure north of the 
area and a 1008 mb over northern Colombia is supporting fresh to 
strong trade winds over the central Caribbean coast and in the 
Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere east of 
80W. Moderate to fresh winds are found over the western 
Caribbean. Seas of 6-8 ft prevail east of 80W, with seas in the 
4-6 ft range west of 80W.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and rough seas will pulse
tonight offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela through
Tue. Winds are expected to strengthen to near-gale force Wed 
through the weekend as the pressure gradient strengthens between 
the Colombian low and high pressure building over the western 
Atlantic. Very rough seas are expected with these winds. Fresh to 
strong E to SE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras today, 
then winds will increase to near-gale force speeds and rough seas 
develop for the second half of the week. Large E swell will 
continue to impact the Tropical Atlantic waters and Caribbean 
Passages most of the week, maintaining rough seas. Elsewhere, 
moderate to fresh trade winds, with strong pulses, are expected 
across the remainder of the Caribbean through Wed, then widespread
fresh to strong winds and rough seas dominate the basin Thu into 
the upcoming weekend. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Thunderstorms associated with a mid level short wave trough moving
across the southeastern United States are regenerating over the
Gulf Stream, mainly between 70W-77W. Farther east, broad high 
pressure dominates the Atlantic waters, anchored by a strong 1032 
mb high center that is located over the north- central Atlantic 
near 36N45W. The associated gradient supports moderate to fresh 
easterly winds and 7 to 10 ft seas over open Atlantic waters west 
of 42W. A cold front is moving through the central Atlantic into 
the eastern Atlantic is just reaching 30N between 33W and 43W. No 
significant weather is occurring with this front. Winds are 20 kt 
or less near the front, however, rough seas in long-period NW 
swell follow the front. In the eastern part of the area, gentle to
moderate winds, and seas of 4 to 7 ft are north of 20N and east 
of about 40W. Moderate to fresh winds along with seas of 6 to 7 ft
are present elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong S winds and rough 
seas will continue through this morning north of 30N well off the 
coast of Florida to 70W, as the pressure gradient strengthens 
between high pressure in the central Atlantic and low pressure 
moving through the eastern United States. A cold front associated 
with the low pressure system will push offshore of the 
southeastern U.S. today, and winds behind the front will turn to 
the W and weaken in its wake. Elsewhere, high pressure over the 
central Atlantic will drift slowly eastward today, and fresh to 
strong trade winds will pulse along the periphery of the ridge, 
mainly south of 25N. Rough seas will accompany these winds. High 
pressure will develop over the western Atlantic by Wed. A 
tightening pressure gradient between the high and the Colombian 
low will support fresh to strong E to SE winds and rough seas 
across the waters south of 27N, including through the Atlantic 
Passages into the Caribbean. 

$$
ERA