730 
AXNT20 KNHC 180943
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Apr 18 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Senegal coast near
14N17W, then curves southwestward to 03N22W. An ITCZ continues 
westward from 03N22W across 00N33W to 02N45W. Scattered moderate 
convection is occurring up to 200 nm along either side of the 
ITCZ west of 28W and near the monsoon trough from 02N to 06N 
between 10W and 22W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface ridge extends southwestward from a 1021 mb high centered
near the Florida Big Bend. Gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are
seen at the northeastern Gulf. Fresh to strong SE winds and 5 to 
7 ft seas dominate the western Gulf. Moderate to fresh E to SE 
winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will pulse offshore of
the Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche through 
this weekend as a trough develops daily and moves westward. 
Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong SE winds spread across much of 
the basin as the pressure gradient increases between low pressure 
over the Southern Plains and high pressure E of Florida. Seas will
also build through the weekend. Conditions will gradually improve
next week as the pressure gradient relaxes.

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A trade-wind pattern continues across the entire Caribbean Basin.
Fresh to strong NE to ENE winds with 6 to 8 ft seas are present 
in the central basin. Fresh to locally strong NE winds and seas 
of 4 to 6 ft exist south of Cuba and in the Windward Passage.
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft dominate the
remainder of the basin. 

For the forecast, strong high pressure north of the basin will 
support fresh to strong NE winds across the central and western 
Caribbean through early next week, including the Windward Passage 
and south of Cuba. Near-gale force winds will pulse off Colombia 
during the overnight hours, accompanied by rough seas. Large 
northerly swell will impact the Mona and Anegada passages in the 
northeastern Caribbean by Sun. Looking ahead, winds and seas will 
diminish starting Tue night as the high pressure north of the area
weakens. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends southwestward from east of Bermuda
across 31N62W to 27N71W. Convection previously associated with
this feature has diminished overnight. To the SE, a surface trough
extends from near 30N60W to Puerto Rico. Scattered moderate
convection is along and within 90 nm E of this trough. Refer to 
the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the 
Atlantic Basin.

N of the stationary front, fresh NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft
are present. Elsewhere W of the surface trough, moderate NE winds
and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present. To the E, ridging extending S
from high pressure N of the region dominates, inducing a mainly
moderate tradewind regime over the waters, with seas of 5 to 8 ft. 

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure building in from the
mid-Atlantic will support increasing strong NE to E winds and 
rough seas this weekend from the Bahamas to the Greater Antilles. 
Winds and seas will slowly diminish west of 65W early next week. 
Looking ahead, a complex low pressure system may develop in the 
central Atlantic this weekend, producing fresh to strong NE winds 
and rough seas surrounding the low, east of 65W. 

$$
Konarik