791 
AXNT20 KNHC 131744
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Apr 13 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1800 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic at the coastal border of
Liberia and Sierra Leone near 07N12W and continues southwestward 
to 01N23W. The ITCZ extends from 01N23W to near 03S39W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted south of 06N and 
east of 28W. More scattered moderate convection is noted along the
Equator between 40W and the far northern coast of Brazil.

GULF OF AMERICA...

Weak high pressure dominates the Gulf of America, supporting
moderate or weaker winds and slight seas across the majority of
the basin. The exception is in the far west Gulf W of 95W, where
SE winds are moderate to fresh due to the pressure gradient
between weak high pressure over the Gulf and a surface trough
inland over eastern Mexico.

For the forecast, high pressure remains centered over the north- 
central Gulf generally providing for light to gentle anticyclonic 
winds across the basin, except for gentle to moderate southerly 
return flow over the far western Gulf. The high pressure will 
shift E to the western Atlantic by Mon allowing for the gentle to 
moderate return flow to increase slightly before diminishing. Tue.
Winds throughout increase to mostly fresh speeds Thu and Thu 
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A surface trough extends from SE Hispaniola to a 1009 mb low over
N Colombia. A combination of this trough and divergence aloft 
supports scattered moderate convection over the far SW Caribbean W
of 78W and S of 11N. Winds across the W Caribbean between 78W and
83W are from the NNE, sustained at fresh to strong speeds. Moderate
to fresh trades persist across much of remaining the basin, with 
fresh to locally strong E to NE winds also occurring offshore NW 
Colombia due to the pressure gradient between a 1030 mb high well 
north of the area, and the Colombian Low. Seas are 4-7 ft across 
the majority of the basin. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades and rough seas off 
Nicaragua will continue today, then diminish on Mon. Fresh to 
strong winds will develop in the lee of Cuba, the Windward 
Passage, and in the lee of Hispaniola tonight through Tue as a 
high pressure center shifts across the Atlantic waters N of the 
area. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades in the south-central 
Caribbean will increase to fresh to strong starting Mon and expand
in coverage through Tue night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front enters the discussion waters near 31N64W and
continues to 21N68W. Fresh to strong S to SE winds are observed 
via satellite-derived wind data from the front out to about 57W 
and N of 20N. Seas are 6-8 ft in this region. Moderate to fresh NW
winds are found behind the frontal boundary, along with moderate 
seas. The rest of the basin is under the dominance of a 1030 mb 
high pressure system centered near 34N40W. Moderate to fresh E to 
NE winds and moderate seas are prevalent in the rest of the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extends from 31N64W to
21N68W while high pressure is building in behind it. Fresh to 
strong winds are east of the front north of about 25N along with 
moderate seas. The front will weaken as it reaches from 28N55W, 
then stationary to the eastern part of Hispaniola Mon night. The 
cold front portion will shift E of 55W Tue while the stationary 
portion weakens to a trough and shift back to the W. The next cold
front may enter the NW waters Tue night with moderate to fresh 
winds and moderate seas on either side of the front. 

$$
Adams