000
AXNT20 KNHC 122346
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Apr 12 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2340 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Guinea near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 04N19W. The 
ITCZ extends from 04N19W to 01N26W to near 01S37W. Numerous 
moderate to strong convection is seen from 03S to 06N between 
01W and 24W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1023 mb high located just S of Louisiana extends a ridge across
the entire basin, supporting moderate to locally fresh N to NW
winds over the eastern half of the Gulf and light to moderate NE
to SE winds over the Bay of Campeche and the far Gulf W of 96W.
Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere. Seas basin wide are
1-4 ft. 

For the forecast, moderate winds over the E Gulf will diminish 
through Sun. High pressure will build across the Gulf with 
moderate to fresh S return flow developing over the W Gulf Sun and
Mon before diminishing.

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

Middle to upper level diffluent flow and the remnants of a former 
trough continue to support scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms, primarily affecting the adjacent waters of Haiti and
the Windward Passage. Similar shower and thunderstorms activity is
over the SW Caribbean offshore waters from 10N-15N between 
75W-81W. The moderate pressure gradient between this area of low
pressure and surface ridging extending from the Gulf of America
extending to the NW Caribbean is allowing for the continuation of 
fresh to strong northerly winds off Nicaragua to near 80W. Seas 
with these winds are 5 to 7 ft. Mostly moderate to fresh north 
winds are over the NW Caribbean along with seas of 3 to 5 ft. 
Moderate to fresh trades are over the eastern Caribbean S of 16N 
with seas of 4 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds off Nicaragua will 
continue through the weekend before diminishing on Mon. Fresh to 
strong winds will develop in the lee of Cuba, the Windward 
Passage, and in the lee of Hispaniola Sun night through Tue as a 
high pressure center shifts across the Atlantic waters N of the 
area. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades will prevail in the 
south-central Caribbean through the weekend before strengthening 
by early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening cold front is over the western Atlantic along a
position from 31N75W to 29N78W. Ahead of the front, a trough 
extends from 31N73W to the northern Bahamas. Farther east, 
another trough extends from 30N67W to the Windward Passage. 
satellite imagery shows scattered showers between 61W and 73W. 
Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are within this area N
of 25N.

The remainder of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic is under 
the influence of a broad subtropical ridge that has a parent high 
of 1029 mb north of the area near 36N42W. Moderate to fresh 
easterly winds are present in the tropics as well as the
subtropical waters between 30W and 65W. Seas in these waters are 
in the moderate range. Farther east, moderate to fresh northerly 
winds and moderate to rough seas to 9 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front over the NW waters 
will progress across the forecast waters. Moderate to fresh winds 
will prevail on either side of the front north of 25N, reaching 
strong speeds E of the front and N of 29N by Sun. High pressure 
will build in the wake of the front. Another weak cold front may 
enter the NW waters Tue night with moderate to fresh winds on 
either side of the front. 

$$
Ramos