000
AXNT20 KNHC 182213
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed Mar 19 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 1000 mb
low pressure north of the area about 330 nm east of Cape Hatteras,
North Carolina to just west of Bermuda near 32N66W to just
southeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands to NW Haiti. Strong to
near gale-force NW to N winds are west of the front to around 78W
to the north of 22N. Fresh to strong southerly winds are north of
23N within 60-90 nm ahead of the front with scattered showers and
embedded thunderstorms within 90-180 nm ahead of the front. The
low is forecast to move southeast to near 33.5N64.5W just west of
Bermuda by 18z Wed as a 1008 mb low. Winds will increase to gale-
force offshore and southeast of the North Carolina Outer Banks 
this evening, pushing south of 31N into our offshore waters around
midnight. Strong to gale-force winds will continue to rotate 
around the low to the southeast, over the waters north of 25N and 
east of 74W by early Wed, eventually diminishing by late Wed night
as the low reaches to near 30N62W while weakening and broadening.
Meanwhile, large and mixed swells of 12 to around 22 ft will
accompany the winds. Overall peak seas will decline Wed night while
seas of at least 12 ft rotate to around the SE quadrant of the 
low, persisting through Thu night. Afterward, the low will shift 
northeastward and continue to steadily weaken, allowing both winds
and seas to continue to diminish and subside through the end of 
the week.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the west coast of Africa
near 14N17W, curving sharply southward to near 03N23W. The ITCZ
extends from 03N23W to 00N40W to near the far northern coast of
Brazil near 01N50W. Widely scattered moderate to locally strong 
convection is noted from roughly 03S to 04N between 13W and 50W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1024 mb high pressure is centered over the Florida Panhandle
near 30.5N85W with a ridge extending west-southwestward to the
central Texas coast. Fresh to strong winds are north of 22N and
west of 94W due to a locally tight pressure gradient between the
ridging and lower pressures over western Texas. Seas are 5 to 8 ft
over those waters per recent buoy and platform observations.
Moderate anticyclonic winds dominate the remainder of the basin
with 5 to 8 ft seas in the southeast portion through the Straits
of Florida, 1 to 3 ft north of 27N and east of 92W, and 3 to 5 ft
over the remainder of the waters.

For the forecast, a tightening pressure gradient in the western 
half of the Gulf of America will continue to support the 
development of fresh to strong S winds through Wed morning, ahead 
of the next cold front. The front will come off the coast of Texas
Wed morning, reach from southern Alabama to Veracruz Wed night, 
from Cape Coral to the Yucatan Peninsula Thu afternoon, and exit 
the basin Thu night into Fri. The front will be followed by fresh 
to strong N winds and rough seas, except for possible brief gales 
off Veracruz Thu afternoon. Winds and seas will diminish across 
the basin on Fri morning with high pressure establishing across 
the basin afterward.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A dissipating cold front extends from NW Haiti to eastern Jamaica
to just offshore northeast Nicaragua. Moderate to locally fresh NE
winds are west of the front, locally strong near the Windward
Passage. Seas are 4 to 7 ft west of the front and west of 77W.
Some scattered showers are near the tail end of the front within
210 nm northeast of Nicaragua. Winds are moderate or weaker across
the remainder of the basin along with 2 to 4 ft seas, except 
locally moderate to fresh near the coast of Colombia where seas
are 4 to 6 ft. Higher seas in northerly swell are also spreading
near and through Atlantic passages over the NE Caribbean.

For the forecast, the tail of a cold front will continue to 
weaken before dissipating tonight into early Wed. Building high 
pressure in the wake of the front N of the area will lead to the 
development of pulsing fresh to strong NE winds in the lee of Cuba
and the Windward Passage this evening through Wed evening. In the
south-central and portions of the SW Caribbean, fresh to strong 
NE to E winds will prevail through the weekend, increasing in 
areal coverage Fri. Otherwise, high pressure will build near the 
Bahamas over the weekend and trade winds will increase across the 
region, with gale-force winds developing offshore Colombia Sat 
evening along with rough seas. Fresh to near gale-force winds will
prevail in the central and portions of the SW Caribbean during 
the weekend and through early next week. Looking ahead, the tail 
of a cold front will enter the NW Caribbean early Fri and 
dissipate Fri evening. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section about an upcoming Gale
Event.

A broad but weak 1007 mb low pressure is located near 26N58W. 
Convergent southerly winds farther east of this low are coupling 
with an upper-level trough in the vicinity to cause scattered 
showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 14N between 38W and 
57W. Fresh to strong mainly southerly winds are around the low
north of 20N between 43W and 63W, where seas of 8 to 14 ft also
prevail. A cold front extends from near 34.5N30W to 32N36W with
fresh to strong SW winds north of 30N between 17W and 35W.
Associated large seas of 8 to 12 ft are spreading southward across
the waters north of 29N east of 37W. Fresh to strong winds are
found from 13N to 23N between the coast of Africa and 35W along
with 8 to 12 ft seas, with the winds due to a tight pressure 
gradient between the monsoon trough and a sharp ridge which 
extends from the Canary Islands through 26N30W then northwest 
through 31N40W. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker across the 
remainder of the open waters along with 4 to 7 ft seas in mainly
mixed easterly and northerly swells, including under the ridge 
and south of 20N and west of 35W to the eastern Caribbean Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, other than the gale-force wind
events with a low pressure moving toward Bermuda, fresh winds and
rough seas in the SE semicircle of another non-tropical low of 
1007 mb near 26N58W will continue to affect the offshore waters 
north of 22N and east of 61W through this evening as the low open 
opens into a trough and moves north of the area. Looking ahead, 
fresh to strong southerly winds will develop over the NE Florida 
offshore waters on Thu ahead of a strong cold front forecast to 
enter the NW offshore waters late Thu into Thu evening. Near gale-
force NW winds will follow this front, which is forecast to reach 
from Bermuda to the central Bahamas late Fri. The front will move 
east of the area on Sat, allowing high pressure to build the 
remaining weekend. Quite tranquil marine conditions are forecast
to dominate the offshore waters during the upcoming weekend.

$$
Lewitsky