266 
AXNT20 KNHC 281748
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Mar 28 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1800 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea 
near 10N14W and continues SW to near 04N17W. The ITCZ extends 
from 04N17W to 01S47W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is occurring from the equator to 05N between 18W and 
70W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure over the western Atlantic has a ridge extending 
across Florida into the Gulf region, while a surface trough was
analyzed over the W Gulf as of 1200 UTC. The pressure gradient 
between these features is supporting fresh to strong E to SE winds
across most of the basin, accompanied by moderate seas. Seas are
locally rough across interior portions of the Gulf from 23N to 28N
between 85W and 95W. An area of numerous showers and 
thunderstorms over the W Gulf has formed into a squall line as of 
1500 UTC, which extends from 28N94W to 22N97W. Numerous moderate 
convection is along and within 25-50 nm of the squall line axis, 
with strong to near-gale force winds occurring within the 
strongest convection.

For the forecast, a 1031 mb high is centered just off the Mid 
Atlantic coast this morning and extends a ridge westward across 
the northern Gulf region. The pressure gradient is tight enough to
support fresh to strong E to SE winds and moderate to rough seas 
across most of the basin. The high pressure will drift slowly 
eastward across the western Atlantic through the weekend, allowing
winds to diminish to moderate to fresh speeds. Seas will subside 
below 8 ft by early Sun. Fresh to occasionally strong winds are 
expected near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula during the 
evening hours due to local effects. A cold front is forecast to 
enter the NW Gulf by Mon, and extend from the Florida Big Bend to 
NE Mexico by Mon night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recent satellite-derived wind data provide observations of fresh 
to strong E winds over the majority of the Caribbean, with the
strongest winds in the basin occurring offshore NW Colombia. 
These winds are the result of the pressure gradient between high 
pressure over the western Atlantic and low pressure over 
northwestern Colombia. Moderate seas dominate the area, with the 
exception of locally rough seas off the coast of Colombia. 
Scattered showers are also noted over the SW Caribbean.

For the forecast, 1031 mb high pressure centered offshore of Cape
Hatteras will drift slowly eastward and combine with the 
Colombian low to support pulsing winds near gale force at night 
and during the early morning hours offshore of Colombia through 
Mon morning. Fresh to strong winds in the lee of Cuba, and in the 
Windward Passage will persist through tonight. Similar wind speeds
are expected in the Gulf of Honduras and south of Hispaniola 
through the upcoming weekend and into early next week. Moderate to
fresh winds will prevail elsewhere. Large E swell will impact the
Atlantic Passages this weekend building seas to around 8 ft. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N55W to 21N70W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are active within 200 nm ahead of the front. Fresh 
to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas dominate the waters 
west of the trough/front. The front breaks up the subtropical 
ridge across the Atlantic, anchored by a 1031 mb high pressure 
about halfway between Bermuda and Charleston, SC, and a 1033 mb 
high pressure area localed SW of the Azores near 37N35W. This 
pattern supports fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas 
across much of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic between 20W 
and 60W. Outside of this large region, NE to E winds are moderate 
to locally fresh with prevailing moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, 1031 mb high pressure is centered just offshore of
Cape Hatteras, while a cold front extends from 31N55W to near 
Inagua Island in the SE Bahamas. The high will drift slowly 
eastward through the weekend, as the front moves SE and gradually 
becomes E to W aligned along about 23N by late Sat while 
weakening. Expect fresh to strong NE to E winds and building seas 
up to 12 ft N of the front. Winds and seas will start to decrease 
later in the weekend as the high pressure shifts eastward of 
Bermuda and weakens. Another cold front will move off the SE 
United States coast by early Tue. 

$$
Adams