425 
AXNT20 KNHC 140959
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Apr 14 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0945 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Africa near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 01N27W. The 
ITCZ continues from 01N27W to near 01N50W. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is observed south of 06N and between 
12W and 32W. 

GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure over the NE Gulf continues to dominate the basin,
supporting moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas south of
23N and east of 94W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and slight
to moderate seas are found west of 94W. Elsewhere, moderate or 
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the high pressure will shift E to the western 
Atlantic today, allowing for the gentle to moderate return flow to
increase slightly before diminishing Tue. Winds will increase to 
fresh speeds Thu, except increasing to fresh to strong over the 
west-central Gulf Fri. 

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A surface trough extends from Hispaniola to the SW Caribbean,
resulting in scattered showers within 120 nm on both sides of the 
axis. Generally dry conditions are noted over the remainder of 
the basin. The pressure gradient between the high pressure to the 
north and lower pressures in NW Colombia support fresh to strong 
easterly trade winds and moderate seas. Fresh to strong N-NE 
winds and moderate seas are occurring in the Windward Passage, 
lee of Cuba and off Nicaragua. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds
and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, fresh trades and moderate seas off Nicaragua 
will diminish this morning. Fresh to strong winds will prevail in 
the lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and in the lee of 
Hispaniola through Tue as a high pressure center shifts across the
Atlantic waters N of the area. Elsewhere, fresh to strong in the 
south- central Caribbean will expand in coverage through Tue 
night. Pulses of strong winds will then continue in this area each
night through the forecast period. Rough seas will prevail with 
the strongest winds. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the SW North Atlantic near 31N58W to 19N69W. 
Scattered showers are occurring ahead of the front. Latest
scatterometer data captured fresh to strong southerly winds ahead
of the front to 55W and north of 27N. Seas in these waters are 
rough. Moderate to fresh NW winds and moderate to rough seas are 
noted behind the front to 72W and north of 30N. Surface ridging 
is building across the W Atlantic behind the front, with a 1022 
mb high centered 28N78W.

A 1028 mb high pressure system centered near 34N37W dominates the
remainder of the tropical Atlantic, sustaining moderate to 
locally fresh easterly trade winds west of 35W. Seas in these 
waters are moderate. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds and moderate 
seas are present east of 35W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds 
and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will continue moving E 
while weakening through midweek, dissipating by Wed night. The 
next cold front may enter the NW waters Tue night with moderate to
fresh winds and moderate seas on either side of the front. This 
front will weaken over the central part of the area Thu, then 
become stationary over the eastern part Fri. Fresh to strong 
northeast winds will prevail south of about 25N and west of 60W, 
including near and in the Windward Passage Fri along with rough 
seas east of the Bahamas. 

$$
ERA