935 
AXNT20 KNHC 251038
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Apr 25 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1020 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal at 13N16W and continues southwestward to 01N22W. The ITCZ
extends from 01N22W to 01N35W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is observed from 04S to 09N between 08W
and 27W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere within 150 nm
either side of the ITCZ. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...
 
High pressure of 1026 mb located over the NW Atlantic waters
extend a ridge SW across most of the Gulf while a surface trough
came off the Yucatan Peninsula earlier tonight and now it moves
across the eastern Bay of Campeche. The resultant pressure
gradient between these features is supporting moderate to fresh E
to SE winds basin-wide along with moderate seas W of 87W per 
SOFAR buoys and oil platforms data. Otherwise, slight seas are
present E of 87W.

For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf waters the 
remainder of the week into the upcoming weekend supporting gentle 
to moderate E to SE winds and moderate seas. Winds will pulse to 
fresh to strong speeds over the east and central Bay of Campeche 
through Tue night due to local effects related to a thermal trough
coming off the Yucatan Peninsula. Winds of moderate to fresh 
speeds are forecast in the Straits of Florida through the period 
due to prevalent high pressure NE of the area. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

The combination of abundant moisture in the eastern Caribbean and
divergence aloft results in widespread cloudiness and scattered 
showers over that area.

The pressure gradient between a 1026 mb high pressure in the NW 
Atlantic and lower pressures in northern Colombia supports fresh 
to locally strong NE-E winds off NW Colombia, and moderate to
fresh NE winds in the Windward Passage and lee of Cuba. Seas in 
these regions are 4-6 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the basin combined with 
the Colombian low will support fresh to locally strong trade winds
offshore Colombia at night through early Sat. Moderate to fresh 
NE winds are expected in the Windward Passage and the lee side of 
Cuba through Tue night. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and 
slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere into early next 
week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of an expansive 
1028 mb high pressure centered a few hundred miles southwest of 
the Azores and its associated ridge. The ridge is weakened by a
pair of surface troughs located just NNE of Puerto Rico. The
pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge in the NW 
Atlantic and lower pressures associated with the troughs supports 
fresh to locally strong NE-E winds over much of the SW North 
Atlantic, especially between 60W and 75W. Seas in these waters 
are 5-9 ft. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and rough seas to 9 ft
are present over much of the subtropical waters E of 45W as well
as across the tropical waters E of 52W. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the pressure gradient between high 
pressure over the NW Atlantic and a surface trough to the N of 
Puerto Rico will continue to support fresh to locally strong NE 
winds and rough seas N of 23N between 60W and 70W through tonight.
Looking ahead, a cold front may move southward, between Florida 
and 65W, late Sunday into Monday followed by moderate to fresh N 
to NE winds. 

$$
Ramos