000
AXNT20 KNHC 271017
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Apr 27 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Senegal at 15N18W to 04N21W. The ITCZ continues from 04N21W to 
the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is evident south of 06N and W of 18W. 

GULF OF AMERICA...
 
A weak high pressure dominates the Gulf waters, supporting 
moderate to fresh NE-E winds and moderate seas south of 22N and 
east of 94W. Moderate E-SE winds and moderate seas prevail in the
rest of the basin, except for light to gentle winds and slight 
seas in the NE Gulf. A stable airmass maintains fairly tranquil 
weather conditions.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to dominate the
Gulf waters through early this week supporting gentle to moderate
E to SE winds and moderate seas. Winds will pulse to fresh to 
strong speeds each evening over the east and central Bay of 
Campeche through Tue night due to local effects related to a 
thermal trough coming off the Yucatan Peninsula. Fresh winds and 
moderate seas are forecast in the Straits of Florida through the 
forecast period due to persistent high pressure NE of the area. By
Monday night, SE winds may increase in the central and northwest 
Gulf and persist through mid-week.

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A band of multilayer clouds, with embedded scattered showers and 
thunderstorms, extends from northern Venezuela northeastward 
across the eastern Caribbean including Puerto Rico and the Leeward
Islands, then into the central Atlantic. This cloudiness is 
associated with strong SW winds aloft occurring on the eastern 
side of a broad upper level trough across the Caribbean basin. 
Elsewhere, shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is 
producing isolated to scattered passing showers across much of the
northeast Caribbean and adjacent islands. 

High pressure centered north of the area support moderate to fresh
easterly trade winds in the lee of Cuba, along with seas of 2-4
ft. Moderate easterly breezes and moderate seas are noted in the 
south-central and eastern Caribbean and Windward Passage. 
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are 
prevalent.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the basin combined with the
Colombian low will support pulsing fresh winds at night in the
Windward Passage, south of Cuba, and offshore Colombia, with
moderate trade winds elsewhere. By Monday evening, winds will
pulse to strong south of Cuba and in the Windward Passage, as
high pressure north of the area strengthens. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad surface trough persists over the Atlantic waters, from 
eastern Hispaniola to near 31N65W. A recent scatterometer 
satellite pass captured fresh to strong easterly winds north of 
25N and between 53W and 67W. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. 
Moderate to fresh easterly winds and slight to moderate seas are 
evident south of 25N and west of 70W. 

A stationary front extends along 31N east of 55W. Fresh east winds
are associated with this feature. The remainder of the basin is 
dominated by broad surface riding, supporting moderate to fresh 
easterly breezes and moderate seas between 25W and 65W. A tighter 
pressure gradient between the ridge off Portugal and lower 
pressures in western Africa sustain fresh to strong N-NE winds and
seas of 6-9 ft east of 25W and north of 19N. Elsewhere, light to 
gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the central Atlantic front will 
drift eastward over the next couple days. Elsewhere, a weak 
surface trough along 68W extending from eastern Hispaniola to 31N 
will persist for the next few days. A cold front will move S of 
31N tonight, reach from near 31N61W to 26N72W to Daytona Beach 
Florida Mon evening, then move to near 31N55W to the central 
Bahamas Tue evening before weakening. Moderate to fresh NNE to NE 
winds will follow the front.

$$
ERA