157 
AXNT20 KNHC 271749
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Dec 27 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Gale Warning and Significant Swell Event: A 
cold front is analyzed from near 31N55W to 26N65W, where it 
begins to dissipate to 26N70W. The front will quickly move 
eastward and catch up with a 1015 mb low pressure that is near 
28N52W. The cold front will then extend from this low to 25N50W 
and to near 20N65W. The low pressure will be invigorated 
resulting in it deepening leading to expanding northerly near 
gale to gale-force winds roughly north of 26N and between 53W 
and 57W, with seas of 10 to 15 ft. Elsewhere, north of 23N west 
of the front to near 65W fresh to strong northerly winds can be 
expected at that time along with seas of 8 to 12 ft. The low 
pressure is forecast to transition to an occluded system and 
lift northeastward into the north-central Atlantic Sun through 
Tue. Fresh to strong winds along with large swell generated from 
the event and producing seas of 12 or 13 ft will continue over 
the waters north of 20N between 25W and 55W into the middle part 
of next week. For more details please refer to the latest NWS 
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coastal plains border of
Ghana and Ivory Coast to 04N15W, where it transitions to the ITCZ
and continues to 05N20W and to near 05N45W. Scattered moderate 
convection is seen within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 24W and
25W, within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 26W and 28W and within 30 
nm north of the ITCZ between 30W and 35W. The eastern Pacific 
monsoon trough extends across the far southwest Caribbean from the
Panama/Costa Rica border to the central coast of Colombia. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is active along 
the monsoon trough.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A relatively weak pressure is over the basin as a weak and broad 
ridge stretches southwestward from the eastern United States to 
the eastern Gulf. Meanwhile, a cold front has recently become 
stationary in the western Gulf within about 40 to 60 nm offshore 
the Texas coast. Weakening scattered showers and thunderstorms are
near the southwestern coast of Louisiana. Latest buoy 
observations and altimeter satellite data passes indicate seas 
of 4 to 6 ft north of about 27N, except for higher seas of 5 to 
7 ft north of 28N between 86W and 88W. Lower seas of 3 to 4 ft 
are south of 27N, except for seas of 2 to 3 ft south of 22N. 
Moderate to fresh southeast winds are over the NE Gulf while 
gentle to moderate southeast to south winds are over the rest of 
the Gulf, except for gentle south to southwest that over the NW 
Gulf.

Satellite imagery shows scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
confined to the Straits of Florida, also over far western Cuba 
and over the Yucatan Channel east of 86W.

For the forecast, the 5 to 7 ft seas will subside to 4 to 5 ft 
by early this evening. Fresh east to southeast winds will develop
over the Straits of Florida this evening, with moderate to 
locally fresh southeast winds expanding over the eastern Gulf by 
early Sat as the aforementioned high moves eastward. Elsewhere, 
moderate to locally fresh southeast winds will develop across the 
western Gulf Sat morning ahead of a weakening cold front moving 
through the south-central United States. The front will enter the
northwest Gulf Sat night and weaken as it moves southeastward 
this weekend before dissipating over the central Gulf early next 
week. Looking ahead, another cold front will enter the basin next 
Tue and move into the central Gulf through Tue night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure over the western 
Atlantic and relatively lower pressure to its south is allowing 
for generally fresh trades to exist between 70W and 81W, including
the Windward Passage and over waters off Colombia. Latest ASCAT
satellite data passes depict gentle to moderate trades elsewhere.
Seas are in the range of 4 to 6 ft in the central Caribbean, and 
2 to 4 ft elsewhere. 

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are confined to south of the
western tip of Cuba to near 20N and between 83W and 86W. This 
activity is part of an extensive plume of deep tropical moisture 
that is streaming north-northeastward from the eastern Pacific 
to over the western Caribbean.

The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends across the far 
southwestern Caribbean from the Panama/Costa Rica border to the 
central coast of Colombia. Latest satellite imagery shows 
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection along and 
near the trough.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh trade winds will 
prevail across central and eastern portions of the basin this 
weekend. The strengthening pressure gradient between a building 
ridge in the western Atlantic, strengthening low pressure in the 
central Atlantic and low pressure in the south-central Caribbean 
will promote locally strong northeast winds through the Windward 
Passage and south of Hispaniola tonight through Sun morning. These
winds will diminish early next week. Looking ahead, building high
pressure north of the area will support increasing winds and seas
across the basin by the middle of next week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details about an
upcoming gale event that is forecast to begin on Sat afternoon.

A central Atlantic cold front stretches into the forecast area 
near 31N54W, and continues southwestward to 28N59W and to 27N64W
and weakening to 26N70W. Fresh to strong north winds are northwest 
of the front between 60W and 67W, except for near gale north
winds north of 28N between 61W and 62W. Seas with these winds 
are 8 to 10 ft. Mostly moderate northeast winds along with seas 
of 4 to 6 ft are south of the front west of 66W. Gentle 
northeast to east winds are elsewhere south of the front along 
with seas of 4 to 6 ft in northeast to east swell. Patches of 
moderate rain with embedded scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms are noted north of 28N between 53W and 58W. 
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along and just 
south of 31N between 50W and 52W. To the east of the front, a 
recent ASCAT satellite data pass revealed low pressure near 
28N52W. The low was analyzed with a pressure of 1015 mb. A 
trough extends north from the low to 32N52W and south-southeast 
from the low to near 25N49W. To the east of this feature, a 
stationary front is analyzed from near 31N38W to 26N44W and to 
23N47W, where it begins to weaken to near 19N56W. A trough is 
analyzed along 50W from 10N to 19N. No significant weather is 
occurring with this feature.

Broad high pressure riding stretches from a strong 1032 mb high 
that is west of Portugal south-southwestward into the eastern 
part of the area. The related pressure gradient is supporting 
gentle to moderate winds west of 35W. Seas of 4 to 6 ft in north 
to northeast swell are over these waters. To the east of 35W, 
weak low pressure of 1018 mb is located near the Canary Islands. 
Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds are northeast and 
east of the low pressure as indicated in the latest ASCAT 
satellite data pass over that part of the area. Seas east of 35W 
are 4 to 6 ft, except for a pocket of 5 to 7 ft from 07N to 10N 
between 29N and 32W.

For the forecast west of 55W, a 1015 mb low pressure centered 
near 28N53W will strengthen and move eastward through this 
weekend. A wide swath of fresh to strong northwest to north winds
will occur surrounding the low, with these winds occurring north 
of 25N between 55W and 68W by this evening, and north of 21N 
between 55W and 65W by Sat morning. Gale-force winds are expected
Sat afternoon into very early on Sun north of about 27N and near 
55W. Rough seas will accompany this system, and seas in excess of 
12 ft will occur near the strong winds. These winds and seas will 
shift east of 55W through late Mon as the low pressure drifts 
eastward. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh northeast to east 
winds will continue to the north of the Greater Antilles and west 
of the low pressure system this weekend, along the periphery of 
high pressure moving off the coast of the United States. Looking 
ahead, expect increasing southeast to south winds and building 
seas off northeast Florida on Sun ahead of cold front approaching 
the region over the southeast United States. 

$$
Aguirre