287 
AXNT20 KNHC 131037
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Mar 13 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11.5N15W and continues southwestward to 
01N23W. The ITCZ continues from 01N23W to the coast of Brazil 
along 03S40W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
noted S of 04N from the Gulf of Guinea near 00W to 23W, and S of 
04.5N between 30W and 50W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure dominates the Gulf of America maintaining fairly
tranquil weather conditions. A 1018 mb high is centered just
offshore of the W coast of Florida near Venice, and is part of the
western portions of a west Atlantic ridge. The pressure gradient 
between this ridge and lower pressures in Mexico and Texas 
supports moderate southerly winds off the Texas and Louisiana 
coasts, while fresh E-SE winds are found off Veracruz and 
Yucatan. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or 
weaker winds and slight seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, southerly return flow over the western basin 
will weaken today as a weak front approaches SE Texas and stalls.
Southerly winds will then increase to fresh to strong speeds 
across most of the basin Fri, then to strong Fri night. The cold 
front will move into the NW Gulf early Sat, reaching from the 
Florida Panhandle to just S of Veracruz, Mexico by Sun morning. A 
reinforcing push will advance the front SE of the basin by early 
Mon, with high pressure settling over the northern basin Mon 
night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The remnants of a stationary front have dissipated over the NW 
Caribbean, but remain along the southern coast of Hispaniola.
Scattered showers are occurring along and south of the front from
the Mona Passage to south of the Dominican Republic. A ridge
across the western Atlantic is centered on a 1020 mb high located
northeast of the Bahamas. The associated pressure gradient is  
forcing fresh to strong easterly trade winds across the south- 
central Caribbean waters S of 13N. These winds sustain seas of 
4-6 ft. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and slight to 
moderate seas are found in the north-central and eastern 
Caribbean, Windward Passage, Gulf of Honduras and lee of Cuba. 
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, the weakening frontal boundary along the 
southern coast of Hispaniola is expected to dissipate today. 
Moderate northwesterly swell will move through the Atlantic 
passages and into the NE Caribbean this morning through early 
Fri. Weak high pressure northeast of the Bahamas will shift slowly
northeastward through Fri to support pulsing fresh to strong 
trades off northern Colombia, while moderate to fresh NE to E 
winds pulse near the Windward Passage and south of the Dominican 
Republic. Similar winds will pulse off eastern Honduras, becoming 
fresh to strong SE to S winds Fri night through early Sun. A cold 
front will approach the Yucatan Channel Sun night into Mon, with 
increasing winds and seas behind it. The front is expected to 
reach from central Cuba to northern Belize by Mon evening. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the central Atlantic near 31N51W and 
continues southwestward to southeastern Hispaniola. Satellite 
imagery depict scattered showers and thunderstorms within 120 nm 
ahead of the front, N of 24N. Overnight satellite scatterometer 
data captured fresh to near gale-force SW-W winds north of 22N 
and between 41W and 65W. Seas in these waters are 8-15 ft, with 
the highest seas noted near 31N55W. However, mariners should be 
aware that gale-force winds gusts are likely occurring with the 
strongest storms. Behind the front fresh to strong NW to W winds
prevail N of 26N and E of 65W, where seas are 10 to 14 ft in W to
NW swell. Moderate N to NW winds and seas of 6 to 10 ft in NW
swell cover the remainder of the area behind the front to 70W. 

A 1020 mb high pressure system dominates the remainder of the SW
North Atlantic, allowing for moderate or weaker winds and moderate
seas west of 70W. In the rest of the central and eastern 
Atlantic, a cold front stretches from the coast of Morrocco near
28N13W to 23N30W, becoming  a stationary front to 24N44W. 
Satellite scatterometer wind data showed fresh to strong westerly
winds north of 28N and east of 30W. Seas in the area described 
are 8-17 ft in NW swell, with the highest seas occurring near 
30N19W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate to rough seas are 
present north of 23N and east of 41W. Elsewhere to the south, 
broad ridging supports moderate to fresh E to NE  trade winds and
moderate to locally rough seas, especially between the Cabo Verde
Islands and the African mainland.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front extending into Hispaniola 
will move slowly SE and reach from 24N55W to near the NW coast of
Puerto Rico by this evening, then weaken from 22N55W to the 
northern Mona Passage Fri. Large NW to W swell behind the front 
will shift east and southeastward through Fri. Winds and seas will
diminish from west to east through Fri as high pressure builds 
over the western Atlantic in the wake of the front. Winds are 
forecast to increase north of 21N this weekend as the pressure 
gradient tightens between the remnants of the cold front and 
strong high pressure to the N. These winds will support building 
seas across most of the basin. The next cold front will push off 
the SE United States coast early Mon, reaching from 31N73W to the 
central Bahamas by Mon evening.

$$
Stripling