725 
AXNT20 KNHC 270439
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Apr 27 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0425 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Senegal at 14N17W and continues southwestward to 03N23W. The ITCZ
extends from 03N23W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is evident south of 08N and
east of 25W. Scattered showers are also present south of 05N and
west of 41W.

GULF OF AMERICA...
 
A weak high pressure dominates the Gulf of America, supporting
moderate to fresh NE-E winds and moderate seas south of 22N and
east of 94W. Mainly moderate E-SE winds and moderate seas prevail
in the rest of the basin, except for light to gentle winds and
slight seas in the NE Gulf. A stable airmass maintains fairly 
tranquil weather conditions.

For the forecast, a surface ridge will continue to dominate the
Gulf waters this weekend and into early next week supporting 
gentle to moderate E to SE winds and moderate seas. Winds will 
pulse to fresh to strong speeds each evening over the east and 
central Bay of Campeche through Tue night due to local effects 
related to a thermal trough coming off the Yucatan Peninsula. 
Winds of moderate to fresh speeds and moderate seas are forecast 
in the Straits of Florida through the period due to persistent 
high pressure NE of the area. By Monday night, SE winds may 
increase in the central and northwest Gulf and persist into mid-
week. 

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A band of multilayer clouds, with embedded scattered showers and 
a few thunderstorms, extends from northern Colombia and Venezuela 
northeastward across the eastern Caribbean and the northern 
Leeward Islands into the central Atlantic. This cloudiness is 
associated with strong SW winds aloft occurring on the eastern 
side of a broad upper level trough across the Caribbean basin. 
Elsewhere, shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is 
producing isolated to scattered passing showers across much of the
northeast Caribbean and adjacent islands. 

High pressure centered north of the area support moderate to fresh
easterly trade winds in the lee of Cuba, along with seas of 2-4
ft. Mainly moderate easterly breezes and moderate seas are noted
in the south-central and eastern Caribbean and Windward Passage.
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are
prevalent.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the basin combined with the
Colombian low will support pulsing fresh winds at night in the
Windward Passage, south of Cuba, and offshore Colombia, with
moderate trade winds elsewhere. By Monday evening, winds will 
pulse to strong south of Cuba and in the Windward Passage, as high
pressure north of the area strengthens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad surface trough persists over the Atlantic waters, from 
eastern Hispaniola to near 29N61W. A few showers are noted near
and to the east of the boundary. A recent scatterometer satellite
pass captured fresh to locally strong easterly winds north of 25N
and between 53W and 67W. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Moderate
to locally fresh easterly winds and slight to moderate seas are
evident south of 25N and west of 72W. 

The rest of the basin is dominated by broad riding, supporting
moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas
between 25W and 60W. A tighter pressure gradient between the ridge
off Portugal and lower pressures in western Africa sustain fresh
to locally strong N-NE winds and seas of 6-9 ft east of 25W and
north of 18N. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extends along 31N
east of 60W. Fresh east winds are associated with this feature. 
This front will drift eastward over the next couple days. 
Elsewhere, a weak surface trough along 66W extending from La Mona 
Passage to 29N will persist for the next few days. A cold front 
will move S of 31N on Sun night, reach from near 31N61W to 26N72W 
to Daytona Beach Florida Mon evening, then move to near 31N55W to 
the central Bahamas Tue evening before weakening. Moderate to 
fresh NNE to NE winds will follow in behind the front.

$$
Delgado