000
AXNT20 KNHC 192059
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Mar 20 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A complex low pressure system N of the area
continues to bring gale-force winds and rough to very rough seas
to the W Atlantic waters. Earlier scatterometer data indicated 
gale-force winds occurring from 25N to 29N between 63W and 68W,
and from 27N to 31N between 68W and 75W. Near-gale to gale-force 
WNW winds and rough to very rough seas associated with this 
complex low pressure system will continue to affect the offshore 
waters NE and E of the Bahamas through early tonight. By Thu 
morning, seas of 12 to 18 ft will cover much of the waters north 
of 20N between 58W and 74W. Afterward, winds and seas will start 
to diminish as the broad non-tropical system moves east and then 
lift north of the area Thu evening.

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front is moving off the 
Texas coast this evening and will quick proceed eastward. Fresh 
to near gale- force N to NW winds will follow the front, which is 
forecast to reach from Panama City, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico 
Thu morning before it moves E of the basin early on Fri. Brief 
minimal gales are expected off Veracruz with the passage of the 
front Thu. Winds and seas will diminish across the basin Fri 
morning through Sat night as high pressure develops over the NE 
Gulf.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast and Offshore Waters 
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on
both events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa
near 12.5N16.5W continuing sharply southwestward to 04N20W. The 
ITCZ extends from 04N20W to 00N30W to near the far northern 
coast of Brazil near 03S39W. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is observed within 300 nm either side of the 
monsoon trough and ITCZ.

GULF OF AMERICA...

Please read the Special Features section for information about the
Gale Warning off Veracruz. 

A cold front is moving into the Texas coastal waters early this
evening. The pressure gradient ahead of the front has weakened a 
bit as a result with mainly moderate SE to S winds ahead of the 
front. Winds are increasing from moderate to fresh behind the 
front. Seas are 1 to 3 ft in the NE Gulf of America, and 4 to 7 ft
elsewhere, beginning to build west of the front. No deep 
convection is noted near or ahead of the front.

For the forecast, a cold front is forecast to move off the coast 
of Texas by this evening. Fresh to near gale-force N to NW winds 
will follow the front, which is forecast to reach from Panama 
City, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico Thu morning before it moves E of
the basin early on Fri. Brief minimal gales are expected off 
Veracruz with the passage of the front Thu. Winds and seas will 
diminish across the basin Fri morning through Sat night as high 
pressure develops over the NE Gulf. A surface trough over the 
Yucatan Peninsula will move into the Bay of Campeche at night Fri 
through Sun, enhancing winds to fresh to strong speeds in the 
Peninsula adjacent waters. Looking ahead, the next cold front will
come off Texas Sun night into Mon. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure is north of the area near the Florida Peninsula.
This high is weakening slightly as a cold front enters the Gulf of
America. Moderate to fresh NE winds are across the approach to the
Windward Passage, while fresh to strong winds are near the coast
of Colombia. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker elsewhere across
the basin. The tail end of a cold front extends from the Atlantic
to near the Anegada Passage with shifting winds behind it. Seas
are mainly 3 to 5 ft west of 74W, locally 6 ft near the strongest
wind areas, and 2 to 4 ft east of 74W, except 5 to 7 ft near and
through Atlantic Passages.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh trades in the 
eastern, central and portions of the southwest Caribbean will 
reach fresh to strong speeds Fri evening, continuing through early
next week as high pressure builds near the Bahamas in the wake of
a cold front. The resultant pressure gradient between the 
associated ridge and lower pressure over Colombia will lead to the
development of near gale-force winds across the south-central 
waters Fri night through Mon night, with pulsing gales at night 
offshore Colombia Sat and Sun. Rough to very rough seas are 
expected with the strongest winds late Sat through Mon. Fresh to 
locally strong NE winds in the Windward Passage and the lee of 
Cuba will diminish Thu morning. Looking ahead, the tail of a cold 
front will enter the NW Caribbean early Fri and dissipate Fri 
evening. The aforementioned building high pressure will result in 
fresh to strong NE winds resuming in the Windward Passage and the 
lee of Cuba Fri evening through Sun night, and east winds of the 
same speed at night in the Gulf of Honduras Sun and Mon. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for information about the
Atlantic Gale Warning in the SW North Atlantic. 

Outside of the Gale Warning area, seas 8 ft or greater are north 
of 20N between 46W and 79W. A cold front, associated in part with
the gale force low, extends from 31N58W to 23N60W to near the 
Anegada Passage. Fresh to strong winds in cyclonic flow prevail N 
of 22N between 54W and 77W, with southerly winds ahead of the 
front. Scattered showers are possible within 120-240 nm ahead of 
the front.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad 
subtropical ridge. The pressure gradient between this ridge and 
lower pressures north of the area result in fresh to strong 
cyclonic winds and rough seas north of 27N and east of 32W. 
Moderate to fresh NE-E winds and moderate to rough seas prevail 
south of 21N between Africa and 45W. Elsewhere, moderate or 
weaker winds and mainly moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, near to gale-force WNW winds and 
rough to very rough seas associated with a complex low pressure 
system located near Bermuda will continue to affect the offshore 
waters NE and E of the Bahamas through early tonight. Afterward, 
winds and seas will start to diminish as the broad non-tropical 
system moves E and then lift N of the area Thu evening. Fresh to 
strong southerly winds will develop over the NE Florida offshore 
waters on Thu afternoon ahead of a strong cold front forecast to 
enter the NW offshore waters Thu evening. Strong to near gale-
force NW winds and rough to very rough seas will follow this 
front, which is forecast to reach from 31N71W to Andros Island and
W Cuba Fri morning, and from 31N57W to the southern Bahamas Sat 
morning where it stall before dissipating late Sat. High pressure 
will build NE to E of the Bahamas in the wake of the front the 
remainder weekend. Looking ahead, a weak cold front may enter the 
NW offshores Mon night. 

$$
Lewitsky