495 
AXNT20 KNHC 082336
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed Apr 09 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front has pushed into the 
western Atlantic, and extends from near 31N75W to South Florida.
The front is forecast to stall from Bermuda to the central 
Bahamas to central Cuba by Wed evening. Favorable jet dynamics 
aloft will support the development of low pressure along the 
front northeast of the northern Bahamas by Wed afternoon. The 
tight gradient between the low pressure and higher pressure 
north of the area will support strong to near-gale force 
northeast winds with building seas north of 29N between 70W and 
80W tonight into Wed night, with winds reaching gale-force Wed 
morning through Wed evening along with wave heights building to 
15 ft. Winds and wave heights will diminish Wed night through 
Thu as the low pressure dissipates. 

Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: An extensive set of N 
swell that continues propagating through the central Atlantic 
and toward the tropical waters is producing rough seas at 13-15 
seconds north of 13N east of about 60W to the Canary Islands. 
The swell will decay below 12 ft through tonight W of 40W. To 
the east, very rough seas will accompany a low pressure area 
moving from the Azores to the Canary Islands on Wed, before 
subsiding into Thu.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center, at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE... 

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 13N17W and continues southwestward to 01N22W.
The ITCZ continues from 01N22W to the Equator at 30W and to near
the coast of Brazil at 03N39W. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is seen within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between
34W-40W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A slow-moving cold front extends from South Florida to western 
Cuba. Latest scatterometer satellite data indicates moderate to 
fresh northwest to northwest winds in the wake of the front. 
Recent buoy observations show wave heights of 5 to 7 ft over the 
basin, except for slightly lower wave heights of 4 to 6 ft over 
the north-central Gulf and 2 to 4 ft over the NW Gulf. Satellite 
imagery showers scattered showers and isolated small 
thunderstorms over the lower Straits of Florida to along and 
just inland the coast of Cuba.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will move east 
of the region this evening, with conditions improving across
the Gulf as high pressure builds south into the basin. A second,
relatively weak, cold front will move through the Gulf Thu night
through Fri. Fresh northwest to north winds will follow this 
front over the northeast Gulf Fri night into Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A slow-moving cold front has entered the northwestern Caribbean 
extending from western Cuba to the northeast part of Honduras. No
significant convection is occurring with this front. Latest 
scatterometer satellite data indicates fresh to locally strong 
northwest to north winds behind the front. The data also depicts 
moderate to fresh trades over the south-central part of the 
basin, with embedded strong speeds within 60 nm of the coast of 
Colombia between 75W and 76W. Gentle to moderate east to 
southeast trades are present elsewhere over the sea. Both 
altimeter satellite data and buoy observations reveal moderate 
wave heights across the basin.

For the forecast, the cold front will move across the rest of
the northwestern Caribbean through Wed, then gradually dissipate
from eastern Cuba to the Honduras-Nicaragua border Thu. The fresh 
to locally strong northwest to north winds along with moderate 
to locally rough seas will follow the front before it dissipates.
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades will prevail over the south-
central Caribbean for the rest of the week, with locally strong 
winds pulsing off Colombia tonight. Farther east, large N swell 
will impact Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles through 
Thu. Looking ahead, fresh to strong north winds and building seas
will follow the remnants of the front off the coast of Nicaragua
late Fri into Sun. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for more details 
regarding the upcoming gale warning northeast of the northern 
Bahamas, and the large swell event in the central Atlantic.

A cold front is analyzed from near 31N75W to South Florida.
Fresh to strong winds southwest winds are within about 180 nm 
east of the front north of 26N. Wave heights are 6 to 8 ft 
with these winds. Moderate to fresh west to northwest winds 
are behind the front, where wave heights are 5 to 7 ft. Satellite
imagery shows scattered showers and thunderstorms along and 
within 60-120 nm southeast of the front north of 26N.
In the eastern Atlantic, a weaker cold front stretches from 
31N16W to 20N28W, then transitions to a stationary front
to near 17N41W. A 1022 mb high center is over the central 
Atlantic at 29N52W, with associated broad ridging stretching 
eastward to near 20W and westward to near the central Bahamas. 
The related gradient is supporting moderate to fresh east to 
southeast winds elsewhere across the basin, except for gentle to 
moderate northwest winds following the front in the eastern 
Atlantic. Large N swell covers much of the central and eastern 
Atlantic, as described in the Special Features section. Wave 
heights are generally 5 to 7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front 
will move eastward through Wed, then gradually stall as low 
pressure forms along it just northeast of the Bahamas. The low 
will track northeast to east into late in the week before 
weakening while the front also dissipates. Northeast winds will 
develop north of the Bahamas tonight, and increase to gale force
N of 28N between 70W and 80W Wed morning, then prevail through 
Wed evening. Very rough seas will build in the area of the gale
winds. As the low moves away from the area and weakens Thu, 
conditions will improve. Looking ahead, a weaker front will move 
off the coast of Florida late Fri, followed by moderate to fresh 
northwest winds. 

$$
Aguirre