092 
AXNT20 KNHC 311607
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Mar 31 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1600 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 08N13W and 
continues west-southwestward to near 06N17W. The ITCZ continues 
from 06N17W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing S
of 04N and W of 16W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure prevails across the northern Gulf waters, with a 
1006 mb low in the SW Gulf. The pressure gradient between these
features is supporting moderate to fresh waters over much of the
Gulf, except gentle winds over the eastern and NW Gulf. Seas are
in the 3-5 ft range over much of the Gulf, except 3 ft or less 
over the eastern Gulf. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate SE winds and slight to 
moderate seas will prevail over much of the Gulf through Tue. A 
surface trough will develop over the Yucatan peninsula this 
afternoon before moving westward through the Bay of Campeche, 
promoting locally fresh SE to NE winds over the region into early 
Tue. A similar pattern is expected Tue night, with to fresh to 
locally strong winds in this area. Elsewhere, fresh to strong SE 
to S winds will develop Tue night across much of the basin west of
85W, as the pressure gradient tightens between building high 
pressure in the western Atlantic and strengthening low pressure in
the central United States. Building rough seas of 8 to 11 ft are 
expected in this region Wed morning through late week. East of 
85W, moderate SE winds Tue night will strengthen to fresh to 
locally strong speeds by Thu, including through the Florida 
Straits. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the Bermuda High north of the area
and a 1010 mb over northern Colombia is supporting fresh to 
strong trades over the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh 
trades are elsewhere E of 80W. Moderate to locally fresh winds are
found over the western Caribbean. Seas of 6-8 ft prevail E of 80W,
with seas in the 4-7 ft range W of 80W.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and locally rough 
seas will pulse each night and early morning offshore of Colombia
and in the Gulf of Venezuela through Tue. Winds are expected to 
strengthen to near-gale force Wed into this weekend as the 
pressure gradient strengthens between the Colombian low and high 
pressure building over the western Atlantic. Locally very rough 
seas will be possible with these winds. Elsewhere, fresh to 
locally strong E to SE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras 
through Tue, before winds increase to near-gale force speeds and 
locally rough seas develop for the second half of the week. Large 
E swell will continue to impact the Tropical Atlantic waters and 
Caribbean Passages most of the week, maintaining rough seas. 
Otherwise, moderate to fresh trade winds, with locally strong 
pulses, are expected across the remainder of the Caribbean through
midweek, before widespread fresh to strong winds and rough seas 
dominate the basin Thu into the upcoming weekend. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad high pressure dominates the Atlantic waters, anchored by 
a 1031 mb high pressure centered just east of Bermuda. This 
pattern is supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds and 7 to 10 
ft seas over open Atlantic waters west of 35W. Farther east, 
gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-7 ft are N of 20N and E of
35W. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 6-7 ft are noted 
elsewhere. 

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong S winds and locally
rough seas are expected to develop this afternoon north of 29N 
well off the coast of Florida to 70W, as the pressure gradient 
strengthens between high pressure in the central Atlantic and low 
pressure moving through the eastern United States. Strong winds 
will expand eastward Tue morning, impacting areas as far east as 
65W. A cold front associated with the low pressure system is 
forecast to push offshore of the southeastern U.S. on Tue. Winds 
behind the front will turn to the NW and weaken in its wake. 
Elsewhere, high pressure over the central Atlantic will drift 
slowly eastward through Tue, and fresh to locally strong trade 
winds will pulse along the periphery of the ridge, mainly south of
25N. Rough seas in excess of 8 ft will accompany these winds. 
High pressure will develop over the western Atlantic by midweek. 
A tightening pressure gradient between the high and the Colombian 
low will support fresh to strong E to SE winds and rough seas 
across the waters south of 27N, including through the Atlantic 
Passages into the Caribbean. 

$$
AL