000
AXNT20 KNHC 221057
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Dec 22 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1030 UTC.

..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 05N09W and extends to
04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W to 03N51W. Scattered
moderate to locally strong convection is noted from 01N to 06N
between 15W and 34W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad ridging dominates the Gulf of Mexico, supporting moderate or
weaker E winds and moderate seas across the basin. 

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NE winds will prevail
over the Gulf of Mexico through tonight as ridging extends over 
the basin. Strong high pressure in the central United States will 
drift slowly eastward early this week, resulting in moderate E to 
SE winds late tonight into Tue. Looking ahead, a cold front will 
move through the south-central United States by midweek, and fresh
SE winds will develop in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico late Wed
ahead of the front. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from the Windward Passage to 16N83W, and a 
stationary front continues through northern Honduras. Scattered 
moderate to locally strong convection is occurring over the north-
central Caribbean near the front. A surface trough has been 
analyzed over eastern Hispaniola, and scattered moderate 
convection is noted east of the boundary over Puerto Rico. 
Elsewhere, the eastern extent of the Pacific monsoon trough is 
initiating scattered moderate to locally strong convection 
offshore of Panama and Colombia, south of 12N. 

The pressure gradient between a strong ridge over the central 
United States and the aforementioned front support fresh to 
locally strong NE winds and seas of 4-7 ft west of a line 
extending from Haiti to northern Panama. The strongest winds and 
highest seas are found in the Windward Passage and in the waters 
surrounding the San Andres and Providencia Islands. Moderate to 
locally fresh E winds and seas of 4-6 ft are present in the SE 
Caribbean, while moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate 
seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE winds are expected across 
the western Caribbean today behind the aforementioned cold front 
before the front dissipates tonight. Locally strong NE winds will 
be possible through the Windward Passage this morning. Elsewhere, 
moderate to locally fresh E winds will prevail over the eastern 
basin. High pressure will build over eastern Mexico this week, and
low pressure over northern Colombia will strengthen. The 
increasing pressure gradient between these features will lead to 
fresh to locally strong NE to E winds across much of the basin 
through midweek. Pulsing strong winds are expected through the 
Windward Passage, downwind of southwestern Cuba and offshore of 
Colombia, and rough seas will be possible near strong winds. Winds
and seas will slowly diminish by late week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N62W and extends southwestward 
through the Windward Passage. Moderate or weaker N winds and 
moderate to rough seas are found west of the front. A trough is 
noted to the east, from 31N61W to eastern Hispaniola. Scattered 
moderate convection is occurring near the trough, north of 26N 
between 58W and 62W. A second cold front extends from 31N68W to 
29N80W, and moderate N to NE winds are noted behind the front. 
Elsewhere, a 1022 mb high is centered near 28N47W, and moderate to
locally fresh SE to S winds are occurring between 55W and 60W. 
Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Elsewhere west of 55W, moderate 
or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of 
a robust subtropical ridge positioned NE of the Azores. The 
pressure gradient between the aforementioned high pressure and 
lower pressures in western Africa and the deep tropics support 
strong to near gale-force NE-E winds north of 17N and east of 32W.
Rough seas are found in these waters, peaking near 13 ft north of
the Canary Islands. Farther south, moderate to locally fresh E 
trade winds and moderate seas are present between Africa and the 
Lesser Antilles, south of 20N. In the rest of the basin, moderate 
or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold fronts will 
progress eastward early this week, and moderate NW winds will 
occur behind the fronts through tonight. Farther east, fresh SE to
S winds will occur north of 25N and east of 60W this morning 
along the periphery of a 1022 mb high in the central Atlantic. The
high will weaken and drift eastward this week. South of 20N, 
moderate to briefly fresh trades will prevail through midweek. 
Troughing will develop east of the Bahamas today into Mon, then 
drift westward toward the east coast of Florida by late Mon, while
low pressure develops off the coast of the southeastern United 
States. Strengthening high pressure in the central United States 
will drift eastward, and the tightening pressure gradient between 
these features will result in widespread fresh to strong NE winds 
and very rough seas north of the Greater Antilles between 60W and 
72W Mon morning, with winds and seas developing farther west 
across the Bahamas by Mon night. Winds and seas will diminish Tue 
night into early Wed. 

$$
ADAMS