166 
AXNT20 KNHC 291737
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Apr 29 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1800 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough axis enters the far eastern Atlantic through
the west coast of Africa near 12N16W, and continues south- 
southwestward to near 07N17W, and then west-southwestward to 
04N23W. The ITCZ then continues from 04N23W to the coast of
Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is observed from 02N to 10N between 09E and 20W. More 
scattered moderate convection is observed from 00N to 10N between 
20W and 47W. 

GULF OF AMERICA...
 
High pressure stretches from offshore the Mid-Atlantic states
southwestward into the Gulf. Mostly dry and stable conditions 
remain in place over the basin, except in the far northwest 
and north-central Gulf where scattered showers are observed via 
satellite. Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds prevail 
across the basin. Seas are in the range of 3 to 6 ft per latest 
buoy observations and in recent altimeter satellite data passes.
 
For the forecast, a high pressure ridge northeast of the Gulf 
will force generally moderate to fresh E to SE winds across 
forecast waters for the next few days. E winds will pulse to 
strong north of the Yucatan peninsula and over the Bay of Campeche
nightly through Thu night in association with a diurnal trough. 
Additionally, E winds will pulse to strong over the Florida 
Straits tonight and Wed night. Looking ahead, winds will diminish 
across the Gulf Fri into the weekend. 

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

Scattered moderate convection is occurring in the far SW Caribbean
S of 11N between the coasts of Colombia and Nicaragua, in the
vicinity of the East Pacific monsoon trough which now extends
across the region. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds are occurring 
elsewhere across much of the central and W Caribbean, per recent 
scatterometer data. Winds across the E Caribbean are gentle to 
moderate and from the east. Seas across the basin are analyzed at 
3-6 ft.

For the forecast, the Bermuda High north of the basin combined 
with the Colombian Low will support pulsing fresh to strong trades
at night over the Windward Passage and south of Cuba through Thu 
night. Elsewhere, tranquil conditions should prevail over the 
forecast waters through the end of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is analyzed from 31N57W to 25N70W to 26N76W. A
pre-frontal trough is also analyzed from 30N57W to 19N65W.
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are observed between this front 
and the east coast of Florida, along with seas of 6-8 ft. 
Scattered showers are occurring in the vicinity of these features.
More scattered showers are occurring ahead of both of these 
features in an area N of 22N between 38W and 57W, with scattered 
moderate convection occurring N of 28N between 51W and 55W. This 
activity is supported by convergent surface winds as well as an 
upper-level trough W of the region. Another cold front extends 
from 31N12W to 27N15W. This cold front is aiding in the 
development of more scattered showers from 19N to 27N and E of 
35W. Winds behind this front and within areas of showers are from 
the N to NE, sustained at fresh to strong speeds. Rough seas are 
also analyzed N of 19N between 17W and 35W.

The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by a ridge extending
from a 1031 mb high centered near 37N35W. Moderate to fresh E to
SE winds prevail N of 20N between 35W and 54W, along with moderate
seas. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic S of 20N between
Africa and the Lesser Antilles is seeing mainly moderate E to NE 
winds and moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extends from 
31N58W to the NW Bahamas. As the front gradually dissipates, fresh
NW to N winds should continue through Wed night. As the Bermuda 
High following the front weakens, winds across the forecast waters
should drop to moderate or weaker on Thu and Thu night. Looking 
ahead, remnants of the front that develop into a trough northeast 
of the Leeward Islands should force fresh to strong NE to E winds 
north of 27N from Fri morning into the weekend. 

$$
Adams