000
AXNT20 KNHC 131706
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Mar 13 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1630 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 09N13W and continues southwestward to 11N19W.
The ITCZ extends from there to 07N45W into coastal Brazil.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 10N-13N between 
43W-50W and from 04N-11N between 10W-37W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A ridge of high pressure extends over the Gulf of America with 
winds moderate or weaker across the waters. Seas are 1-3 ft and no
deep convection is occurring.

For the forecast, the high pressure centered over southern 
Florida extending a ridge across the eastern Gulf will slide E-NE 
into the W Atlantic through tonight. Southerly gentle to moderate 
winds will increase to fresh to strong speeds across the western 
Gulf Thu night and expand to the remaining basin on Fri and Fri 
night ahead of the next cold front. The cold front will move into 
the NW Gulf Sat morning, reaching from the Florida Panhandle to 
the Bay of Campeche by Sun morning. A reinforcing push will 
advance the front SE of the basin by early Mon, with high pressure
settling over the northern basin Mon night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A dissipating cold front extends from Puerto Rico southwestward to
17N70W. A rather weak pressure gradient from the Bermuda High
north of the area to a 1012 mb low along the coast of Colombia is
contributing toward only gentle to moderate trades, except for
fresh to strong just north of Colombia. Seas are 4-7 ft over the S
central Caribbean and 2-4 ft elsewhere. Scattered showers are
occurring within 60 NM of the dissipating front. Elsewhere, no
significant convection is occurring.

For the forecast, the weakening cold front extending from the 
central Atlantic SW to 25N55W to Puerto Rico will dissipate today.
Moderate NW swell will impact the Atlantic passages today through
Fri morning. Weak high pressure northeast of the Bahamas will 
shift slowly NE through Fri to support pulsing fresh to locally 
strong trades off NW Colombia, while moderate to fresh NE to E 
winds pulse near the Windward Passage and south of the Dominican 
Republic. Similar winds will pulse off eastern Honduras, becoming 
fresh to strong SE to S winds Fri night through early Sun. A cold 
front will approach the Yucatan Channel Mon morning, with 
increasing winds and seas behind it. The front is expected to 
reach from central Cuba to northern Belize by Mon evening. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from the central Atlantic southwestward to 
25N55W to Puerto Rico. Ahead of the front, SW winds are fresh to
near gale north of 27N. Behind the front, NW to N winds are fresh
to strong north of 29N. Seas are 8-14 ft in mixed wind waves and W
swell north of 25N between 45W-65W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is occurring within 60 NM of the front north of 25N and
scattered shower exist within 60 NM of the front south of 25N. In
the E Atlantic, a weakening cold front extends from the coast of
Western Sahara near 25N15W west-southwestward to 22N34W. Winds are
W to NW fresh to strong north of 27N east of 25W. Seas are 8-18 ft
north of 22N east of 35W. Scattered showers exist within 60 NM of
the front. Elsewhere winds are gentle to moderate with seas 5-7 
ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will weaken from 22N55W 
to the northern Mona Passage Fri. Large NW to W swell behind the 
front will shift E and SE through Fri. Winds and seas will 
diminish from west to east through Fri as high pressure builds 
over the western Atlantic in the wake of the front. Winds are 
forecast to increase to fresh to strong speeds north of 22N and E 
of the Bahamas this weekend as the pressure gradient tightens 
between the remnants of the cold front and strong high pressure to
the north. These winds will support building rough seas across E 
of the Bahamas. A strong cold front will push off the SE United 
States coast early Mon preceded and followed by fresh to strong 
winds. The front will reach from 31N73W to the central Bahamas by 
Mon evening.

$$ 
Landsea