000
AXNT20 KNHC 271031
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Apr 27 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is analyzed over Africa. The ITCZ extends from
03N16W to 00N40W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
south of 06N and west of 25W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The pressure gradient between a 1034 mb high pressure system near
New England and lower pressures over the central United States 
and Mexico result in fresh to strong SE winds across much of the 
Gulf of Mexico. Seas in these waters are mainly moderate. The 
upper level trough over the central United States support widespread
mid to upper level cloudiness over most of the basin. However, no
deep convection is observed on satellite imagery.

For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between a strong 
ridge in the NW Atlantic and lower pressures in the central US and
Mexico will support fresh to strong southeast winds over much of 
the Gulf through Sun night. Seas are expected to peak near 10 ft 
in the NW and central Gulf today and Sun. Meanwhile, winds will 
pulse to fresh to strong speeds near the Yucatan Peninsula each 
evening through the forecast period. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A combination of a surface trough that extends across eastern
Hispaniola and an upper level trough over the western Atlantic
result in scattered moderate convection affecting the eastern
Greater Antilles and surrounding waters. Heavy rains and flooding
have been occurring in Hispaniola during the last week or so. It 
is possible that continual amounts of rain may help to increase 
the chances for flash flooding in inland areas, especially in 
hilly terrain and in low-lying areas. Please, refer to bulletins 
from your local weather service offices for more details about 
this event. Meanwhile, generally dry conditions are noted in the 
NW Caribbean. 

The pressure gradient between a strong ridge in the NW Atlantic
and lower pressures in the deep tropics support fresh to strong
easterly trade winds in the Windward Passage, lee of Cuba, off
southern Hispaniola and the Gulf of Honduras. Seas in these waters
are 3-6 ft and forecast to build to 9 ft later today. Moderate to
locally fresh easterly breezes and seas of 3-5 ft are present in
the south-central Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds
and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, a strong high pressure system centered off New 
England will force fresh to strong trade winds in the Gulf of 
Honduras, lee of Cuba, Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola 
through early next week. Seas will peak near 9 ft during the 
strongest winds. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds will 
prevail in the rest of the basin. Northerly swell will push seas 
to 8 ft through the water passages in the NE Caribbean early next 
week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 31N59W to eastern Hispaniola. A few
showers are seen near the trough. The 1034 mb high pressure off
New England sustain fresh to strong N-NE winds behind the surface
trough, with the strongest winds occurring between the central
and SE Bahamas and Cuba. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. The
remainder of the basin is under a broad subtropical ridge centered
near the Azores, sustaining moderate or weaker winds and moderate
seas.

For the forecast, surface trough extends from 31N59W to 19N69W. 
The cold front north of the area will merge with the surface 
trough this morning and the front will reach from near 25N55W to 
Hispaniola by Sun morning, then stall and weaken over the far 
southeastern part late Sun through Mon night. North swell behind 
the front will build seas to a peak of 12 ft over northeast 
offshore waters by Sun. Strengthening high pressure in the wake of
the front will result in fresh to strong north to northeast winds
behind the front from tonight through Sun. By late Sun, fresh 
winds will prevail in the wake of the weakening front and continue
through Mon. Tranquil conditions are expected Tue as high pressure
becomes centered over the NW part of the offshore waters, with 
the induced gradient supporting fresh northeast to east winds over
the southern waters.

$$
Delgado