000
AXNT20 KNHC 310300
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Mar 31 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0240 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE... 

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean through the 
coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W and continues west- 
southwestward to near 03N17W. The ITCZ extends from 03N17W to
00N30W to 02S44W along the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate
convection is ongoing from 03N to 06N between 07W and 11W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A line showers and thunderstorms continues to move across the
coastal waters of the western Florida Panhandle, associated with 
a mid level shortwave trough in the vicinity. At the surface, a 
surface ridge extends from the western Atlantic through the 
northern Gulf. A trough is setting up over the west coast of the 
Yucatan Peninsula. Data from platforms in the northwest Gulf show 
areas of fog reducing visibility to 2 to 4 miles. Advisories are 
in effect for dense fog along the coast of Louisiana and the 
Florida Panhandle. Fresh to strong winds are probably ongoing 
east of the trough along the northern coast of the Yucatan 
Peninsula. Gentle to moderate SE breezes are noted elsewhere. Seas
are 2 to 4 ft over the eastern Gulf, and 4 to 6 ft over most of 
the western Gulf.

For the forecast, the aforementioned western Atlantic ridge will dominate the Gulf 
region through Mon, producing a gentle to moderate return flow and
slight to moderate seas. A weak cold front is forecast to sink 
into the NW and N central Gulf coastal waters late on Mon, and 
extend from the Florida Big Bend to SE Texas by Tue morning before
lifting north and dissipating. High pressure will then build 
westward across the Gulf Tue night through Fri to support fresh to
strong SE to S winds across most of the basin and moderate to 
rough seas. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the Bermuda High north of the area
and a 1009 mb over northern Colombia is resulting in fresh to 
strong trades over the central and northeastern sections of the 
basin. Strong to near gale-force winds are just north of Colombia.
Trades elsewhere are in the gentle to moderate range as seen in 
earlier scatterometer satellite data passes. Seas are 8 ft north 
of Colombia, 3 to 5 ft in the far northwest Caribbean and 4 to 7 
ft elsewhere. No significant deep convection is presently 
observed.

For the forecast, the high pressure east of Bermuda will continue
to interact with the Colombian low to support fresh to strong 
trade winds and moderate to rough seas off the coast of Colombia 
through the middle of the week. Similar wind speeds are also 
expected in the Gulf of Honduras through Wed. Large E swell will 
continue to impact the tropical Atlantic waters and Caribbean 
Passages most of the week, maintaining rough seas. High pressure 
will again relocate N of the Caribbean Sea Wed afternoon through 
Fri night and bring about a significant increase in winds and seas
across most of the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad high pressure dominates the western Atlantic, anchored by
1030 mb high pressure just east of Bermuda. This pattern is
supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds and 7 to 9 ft seas
over open Atlantic waters west of 35W. Farther east, 1010 mb low
pressure is centered west of Madeira, with a trough extending from
the low to 21N25W. Fresh N winds and 8 to 9 ft seas are noted west
of the trough to 28W, and north of 23N. Moderate to fresh N winds
and 6 to 8 ft seas are noted elsewhere east of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure east of Bermuda  
will drift slowly eastward and weaken some through Mon night. As a
result, winds and seas will diminish modestly across the forecast
area Mon afternoon through Mon night. A cold front will move off 
the SE United States coast late Tue and weaken quickly across the 
waters off northeast Florida early Wed. High pressure will then 
build southward again across the region Wed night through Fri, 
bringing an increase in winds and seas, mainly across the waters 
south of 24N.

$$
Christensen