000
AXNT20 KNHC 220434
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Nov 22 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0431 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning and Significant Swell Event: A Gale Warning
is in effect for a portion of the SW N Atlantic for westerly 
gale winds in the wake of reinforcing cold front that will 
quickly sweep across the waters N and NE of the Bahamas starting 
late tonight through Sat night. Along with these winds, seas are 
expected to build to 12 to 15 ft by Fri night, covering mainly 
the waters N of 28N between 65W and 78W. These seas will shift 
eastward roughly N of 30N, reaching the forecast waters between 
55W and 65W on Sun before moving E of 55W early on Mon.  

For more details, please read the latest NWS High Seas 
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website 
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coastal 
plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, and continues southwestward 
to near 06N18W. The ITCZ extends from 06N18W to 05N34W to 
06N51W. Scattered moderate convection can be found from 03N to 
09N between 16W and 33W, and from 08N to 14.5N between 38W and 
48W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1025 mb located over NW Texas has a ridge that 
covers the entire Gulf of Mexico and the State of Florida. 
Moderate to fresh N winds are noted E of 90W with seas 7 to 9 
ft. Gentle to moderate N winds prevail W of 90W with seas 4 to 7 
ft. Moderate to locally fresh N winds and seas of 7 to 8 ft are 
noted in the Bay of Campeche. Cold air stratocumulus clouds 
dominate the southern half of the Gulf while clear skies are 
noted on visible satellite imagery over the waters N of 23N, 
implying that a cool and drier air mass has invaded the area. 

For the forecast, a cold front moving through the southeastern 
United States will progress into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico 
late tonight into Fri morning, promoting fresh NW winds across 
the eastern half of the basin. Strong N winds will be possible 
north of 28N and east of 88W through early Fri. Locally rough 
seas will occur near the strongest winds. Farther south, 
moderate to fresh N winds will continue through Fri morning in 
the wake of another cold front moving through the northwestern 
and central Caribbean Sea. Locally rough seas of 8 to 9 ft are 
expected through the Yucatan Channel tonight into Fri behind 
this front. Winds across the basin will diminish to gentle to 
moderate speeds by Sat morning as high pressure develops over 
the southeastern United States. Moderate to locally fresh SE 
winds look to develop over the western Gulf Sun into early next 
week ahead of a developing low pressure in the Great Plains.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front stretches from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras.
An area of showers and thunderstorms is noted near the southern 
end of the front affecting the Bay Islands and NE Honduras. 
Fresh to locally strong N winds are behind the front. Seas are 6 
to 8 ft in the wake of the front. The eastern end of the Pacific 
monsoon trough is producing scattered moderate convection over 
the SW Caribbean. A weak pressure gradient dominates the 
remainder of the basin where a light to gentle wind flow is 
evident, with seas of 1 to 3 ft. A few showers are over the 
eastern Caribbean in the vicinity of a surface trough that 
extends from near Guadeloupe Island to to 13N67W.

For the forecast, a cold front extending from central Cuba to 
central Honduras will progress southeastward through Fri night 
to 20N77W to 10N82W, before stalling on Sat and gradually 
dissipating. Fresh to locally strong N winds will occur in the 
wake of the front, with the strongest winds occurring offshore 
of Nicaragua Fri night into Sat. Moderate seas will also develop 
behind the front, with locally rough seas of 8 to 9 ft expected 
through the Yucatan Channel tonight into Fri. A tightening 
pressure gradient between developing low pressure in the 
southwestern Caribbean and high pressure overtaking the 
southeastern United States will promote fresh NE winds in the 
Atlantic Passages and in the lee of Cuba on Sat, with moderate 
to fresh E to NE winds and moderate seas in NW swell developing 
across much of the basin Sun through early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning has been issued for parts of the SW N Atlantic.
Please, see the Special Features section for more information. 

A cold front extends from 31N68W to the NW Bahamas and central
Cuba. Moderate to fresh winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are on 
either side of the front N of 27N. A few showers and isolated 
thunderstorms are along the frontal boundary. A reinforcing cold 
front is north of the area, however, strong NW wind are noted 
north of 30N between 77W and 81W. A surface trough runs 
northeastward from near the northern Leeward Islands to near 
25N56W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are occurring near 
the trough axis. Another trough is producing scattered moderate 
convection north of 26N between 30W and 40W. A ridge dominates 
the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters. Light to gentle 
winds are noted under the influence of the ridge. An area of 8 
to 10 ft in NW swell covers the waters N of 28N between 41W and 
59W. Moderate seas in northerly swell are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, a Gale Warning is in effect for a 
portion of the northwest waters for W gale winds in the wake of 
a reinforcing cold front that will quickly sweep across the 
waters N and NE of the Bahamas late tonight through Sat night. 
The strongest winds will occur north of 30N on Fri and Fri 
night. Rough to very rough seas will accompany these winds, with 
seas of 12 to 15 ft expected north of 28.5N between 78W and 65W. 
Long-period N swell with this front will produce rough seas for 
areas north of 25N by Sat morning. Rough seas will shift 
eastward through this weekend, and seas greater than 8 ft will 
continue into next week for areas east of 65W. Meanwhile, 
another cold front extending from 31N67W to 25N72W will progress 
slowly eastward through Fri, with fresh to strong SW winds 
occurring along and ahead of the front. Winds associated with 
both fronts will merge on Sat before the system lifts to the 
north of the area. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh E winds and 
moderate seas will prevail south of 20N into next week.

$$
KRV