950 
AXNT20 KNHC 132338
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Mar 14 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2330 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and continues 
southwestward to 00N22W. The ITCZ extends from 00N22W to 03S43W 
into coastal Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is occurring
south of 06N between the coast of Africa to 36W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A trough has been analyzed from 24N92W southwestward to 19N95W,
and weak ridging extends across the remainder of the Gulf. Gentle
to locally moderate SE to SW winds prevail through the basin with
seas of 1-3 ft. No significant convection is occurring across the
basin.

For the forecast, surface ridging extending from high pressure 
over the SW N Atlantic waters into the eastern Gulf will slide E 
through tonight as low pressure continues to build over the 
remainder of the basin ahead of the next front. Southerly gentle 
to moderate winds will increase to moderate to fresh speeds across
the western Gulf tonight and expand to the remaining basin Fri. 
Southerly winds will further increase to fresh to strong speeds 
Fri night ahead of a cold front that will move into the NW Gulf 
Sat morning. The front will reach from the Florida Panhandle to 
the Bay of Campeche by Sun morning and move E of the Gulf Mon 
morning. Looking ahead, high pressure will settle over the 
northern basin Mon night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A trough extends over Puerto Rico southwestward to 17N70W. A 
rather weak pressure gradient from the Bermuda High north of the 
area to a 1009 mb low along the coast of Colombia is contributing
toward only gentle to moderate trades, except for fresh to strong
NE winds just north of Colombia. Seas are 4-6 ft over the S 
central Caribbean and 2-4 ft elsewhere. No significant convection
is occurring across the basin. 

For the forecast, the tail of a cold front that extends from the 
central Atlantic SW to 23N55W to NE Puerto Rico will stall tonight
before it starts lifting N through Sun when it will start to 
dissipate. Moderate NW swell associated with the front will 
continue to impact the Atlantic passages through early Fri 
morning. High pressure NE of the Bahamas will shift slowly NE 
through Sun night to support pulsing fresh to locally strong 
trades off NW Colombia, and moderate to fresh NE to E winds in the
Windward Passage and south of the Dominican Republic. Similar 
winds will pulse off eastern Honduras, becoming fresh to strong SE
to S winds Fri night through early Sun. A cold front will 
approach the Yucatan Channel Mon morning, with increasing winds 
and seas behind it. The front is expected to reach from eastern 
Cuba to NE Honduras by Tue morning, and from the Windward Passage 
to NE Nicaragua Tue evening. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from the central Atlantic southwestward to 
24N55W to Puerto Rico. Ahead of the front, SW winds are fresh to 
near gale north of 27N. Behind the front, NW to N winds are fresh 
to strong north of 29N. Seas are 8-13 ft in mixed wind waves and 
W swell north of 25N between 40W-65W. Scattered moderate convection
is occurring within 90 NM of the front. In the E Atlantic, a 
weakening cold front extends from the coast of Western Sahara near
23N16W west-southwestward to 21N20W, and continues as a trough to
22N35W. Winds are W to NW fresh to strong north of 27N east of 
25W. Seas are 8-18 ft north of 21N east of 35W. Elsewhere, winds 
are gentle to moderate with seas 5-7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the tail of the cold front in the
central Atlantic will stall tonight before it starts lifting N 
through Sun when it will start to dissipate. Large NW to W swell 
behind the front will shift E and SE through Fri. Winds and seas 
will diminish from west to east through Fri as high pressure 
builds over the western Atlantic in the wake of the front. Winds 
are forecast to reach fresh to strong speeds again north of 22N 
and E of the Bahamas this weekend as the pressure gradient 
tightens between the remnants of the front and strong high 
pressure to the north. These winds will support building rough 
seas across E of the Bahamas. Looking ahead, a strong cold front 
will push off the SE United States coast early Mon preceded and 
followed by fresh to strong winds. The front will reach from 
31N70W to the southern Bahamas and eastern Cuba by Tue morning. 

$$
ADAMS