000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191505
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Apr 19 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from western Panama near 08N83W to 06N94W.
The ITCZ stretches from 06N94W to 05N120W and beyond 04N140W. A 
second ITCZ extends from 02S116W to 07S140W. Scattered moderate 
to isolated strong convection is occurring south of 10N and east
of 90W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 10N 
between 95W and 117W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The pressure gradient between a robust 1041 mb subtropical ridge
positioned over the North Pacific and lower pressures in the SW
United States and Mexico support moderate to fresh northerly
winds across the offshore waters of Baja California. Seas in
these waters are 5-7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds and
seas of 2-4 ft are noted in the Gulf of California. Elsewhere, 
gentle to moderate W-NW winds and slight to moderate seas are 
present in the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, 
including the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, localized fresh W winds will pulse in the 
northern Gulf of California early this morning. Elsewhere, 
pulsing fresh to strong NW winds are expected offshore of 
southwestern Mexico near Jalisco through Guerrero into early next
week, while occasional fresh NW winds will occur through the 
Sebastian Vizcaino Bay and Magdalena Bay and surrounding areas 
this weekend. Otherwise, gentle to moderate NW winds and slight 
to moderate seas will prevail over the remainder of the waters 
through the middle of next week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak surface trough continues to generate strong showers and
isolated thunderstorms off the Pacific coast of Colombia.
Meanwhile, a strong subtropical ridge north of the area 
continues to support fresh to near gale-force easterly trade 
winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending westward to 
91W. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. Moderate to fresh 
northerly winds and moderate seas are present in the Gulf of 
Panama, extending southward to 04N. Elsewhere, moderate or 
weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, strong to near-gale force E winds will pulse 
in the Gulf of Papagayo this morning, and locally rough seas will
accompany these winds. Fresh to strong E winds are then expected
each night and morning in this region through the middle of next
week. Moderate to fresh winds will likely extend through the 
waters well offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala this weekend. 
Elsewhere, fresh to strong N winds will occur this morning in the
Gulf of Panama, with winds occasionally pulsing to moderate 
speeds thereafter. Looking ahead, a new long-period S to SW swell
will propagate through the regional waters early next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

A broad subtropical ridge over the North Pacific extends into 
the waters of the tropical eastern Pacific. Moderate to fresh 
easterly trade winds and seas of 6-9 ft are noted from the ITCZ 
to 20N and west of 110. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate 
seas are prevalent elsewhere. 

For the forecast, moderate N to E winds will occur north of the 
ITCZ through the middle of next week as ridging prevails over the
eastern Pacific waters. Pulsing fresh NE winds are expected 
through Sun between 05N and 20N, west of 115W. A short-period, 
wind-generated E swell will promote rough seas in this region 
through early next week. Looking ahead, a long-period Southern 
Hemisphere swell will progress through the southern waters late 
next week.

$$
Delgado