806 
AXPZ20 KNHC 132236
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Mar 13 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of California Gale Warning: A cold front extending from 
32N114W to 22N128W is supporting strong to near-gale force SW 
winds over the northern Gulf of California. The front will 
progress eastward this evening, leading to gale force NW to W 
winds across this region into early Fri. Winds are expected to 
quickly diminish below gale force Fri morning. 

Significant Swell Event: Rough seas in excess of 8 ft are 
occurring to the north and west of the cold front moving through 
the northern waters. Peak seas of 12 to 15 ft are noted north of 
24N and west of 121W this afternoon. Very rough seas in excess of
12 ft will spread to the south and east through Fri morning, 
impacting areas north of 23N between 116W and 140W. Seas are 
expected to subside below 12 ft by late Fri morning or early 
afternoon, with seas slowly subsiding below 8 ft from west to 
east this weekend. 
 
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure in northwest 
Colombia southwestward to 09N84W to 02N104W. The ITCZ continues 
from 02N104W to beyond 06S140W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted south of 07N between 84W and 92W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features Section for details on the Gale Warning
in the Gulf of California and the Significant Swell event 
impacting the waters offshore of Baja California.

A cold front extends across the waters of Baja California Norte 
from 32N114W to 22N128W. Recent scatterometer satellite data 
depicts fresh to locally strong NW winds north of 27N behind the 
cold front, and moderate to locally fresh SW to W winds ahead of 
the front. Rough seas are expanding farther south and east across
the Baja California Norte waters, with peak seas of 12 to 13 ft 
noted north of 29N and west of 121W. In the Gulf of California, 
strong to near-gale force SW winds prevail. Elsewhere, a 1013 mb 
low has been analyzed offshore of Colima near 18N105W, and 
moderate to locally fresh N to NW winds and locally rough seas to
8 ft are noted west to northwest of the low, including near Cabo
San Lucas and in the southern Gulf of California. Otherwise, 
gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail offshore 
of southwestern Mexico. 

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will progress 
southeastward through the Baja California waters and the Gulf of 
California through late Fri. Gale force NW to W winds are 
expected in the far northern Gulf of California this evening into
early Fri. Farther west, fresh to strong NW winds will occur 
behind the front offshore of Baja California Norte. Rough seas 
associated with the cold front will propagate southeastward into 
this weekend, impacting the waters offshore of all of Baja 
California by late Fri night, and offshore of southwestern Mexico
by early Sat. Peak seas of 12 to 13 ft will impact areas north 
of Punta Eugenia this evening through Fri morning. Elsewhere, 
pulsing moderate to locally fresh N to NW winds will continue 
offshore Cabo Corrientes to offshore of Baja California Sur 
through tonight, before more widespread fresh to locally strong 
winds develop Fri morning as the cold front moves southeastward. 
Widespread moderate to fresh N to NW winds are expected across 
the aforementioned areas through Sat, with pulsing fresh winds 
continuing in the Gulf of California through Sun. Looking ahead, 
gale force winds will be possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun 
night into early next week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to locally moderate winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft in S to 
SW swell prevail across the the region. Recent satellite imagery
depicts scattered moderate convection occurring just offshore of
western Colombia and northwestern Ecuador. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to 
moderate seas will prevail across the waters offshore of Central 
and South America through this weekend. Looking ahead, pulsing 
fresh to locally strong winds look to redevelop in the Gulf of 
Papagayo and Gulf of Panama early next week. Elsewhere, rough 
seas generated by gale force winds in the Gulf of Tehunatepec 
will impact areas well offshore of Guatemala early next week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

See the Special Features Section for details on the Significant 
Swell Event that is currently impacting the waters north of 24N 
west of 123W.

A cold front moving through the northern waters extends from
32N114W to 22N128W, and fresh to locally strong NW winds are 
occurring in the wake of the front, generally to the east of 
127W. Outside the significant swell as described above under 
Special Features, rough seas associated with the cold front are 
progressing southeastward, with seas in excess of 8 ft noted in 
the wake of the front. Elsewhere, broad ridging covers much of 
the open waters, extending from a 1031 mb high centered near 
28N149W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are occurring along the 
periphery of the ridge, from north of the ITCZ to 20N, generally 
west of 115W. Seas of 8 to 10 ft are noted in this region, with 
the highest seas occurring near the strong winds. Otherwise, 
gentle to locally moderate winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail 
across the remainder of the waters east of 115W. 

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will progress 
southeastward through late Fri, producing fresh to locally strong
NW winds in the wake of the front. Rough seas in excess of 8 ft 
will progress southeastward, impacting areas north of 18N through
late tonight, and north of 15N through late Fri. Very rough seas
in excess of 12 ft will spread to the south and east through Fri
morning, impacting areas north of 23N between 116W and 140W. 
Seas are expected to subside below 12 ft by late Fri morning or 
early afternoon. Farther south, moderate to fresh trade winds 
and rough seas of 8 to 10 ft will prevail from 05N to 20N and 
west of 115W through this weekend as high pressure drifts 
eastward. Locally strong winds and seas to 11 ft will be possible
west of 135W through Fri. Looking ahead, another cold front is 
slated to move into the northwestern waters this weekend, 
producing fresh to locally strong N to NE winds and rough to very
rough seas in the wake of the front north of 25N and west of 
125W through Mon.

$$
ADAMS