316 
AXPZ20 KNHC 311603
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Mar 31 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A trough extends southwestward from low pressure that is along 
the coast of Colombia to across central Panama, and continues to 
05N90W to 04N105W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to the
Equator at 120W and continues to below the Equator at 01S130W and 
to 02S140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 
seen from 04N to 09N between 116W-125W. Scattered moderate 
convection is from 06N to 11N between 104W and 113W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Broad high pressure anchored by a 1021 mb high centered near
26N159W is the main feature driving the weather pattern over 
these waters. The associated gradient is allowing for moderate 
to fresh northwest to north winds over the waters west of Baja 
California, and for gentle to moderate north to northeast winds 
over the waters elsewhere west of Mexico, including near the 
Revillagigedo Islands. Seas over these waters are 7 to 9 ft 
in residual long-period NW swell. Lower seas of 5 to 7 ft in 
mix SW and NW swell are over the waters between the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec region and Acapulco. Light to gentle winds are 
evident at the northern Gulf of California, while gentle to 
moderate NW winds are noted for the rest of the Gulf. Seas across
the entire Gulf range from 1 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure over the eastern Pacific will 
support moderate to fresh with occasionally strong NW to N winds 
across the Baja California offshore waters through Tue. These 
winds are expected to become fresh to strong Tue night through 
Wed, then diminish to moderate speeds by Thu. Residual long- 
period NW swell should maintain rough to very rough seas off Baja
California and near the Revillagigedo Islands through this 
morning, then gradually subside from north to south this 
afternoon and tonight. Winds in he northern and central Gulf of 
California are expected to increase to fresh to strong speeds Tue
evening through Wed morning. There is potential for winds in the
northern part of the Gulf to reach near-gale force late Tue 
night into early on Wed. A new set of large long-period NW swell 
is forecast to arrive by Tue night, bringing more rough to very 
rough seas off Baja California through Thu. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate easterly winds and seas at 4 to 5 ft are noted in the 
Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate northerly winds and seas of 
3 to 5 ft due to long-period SW swell are in the Gulf of Panama. 
Light to gentle winds along with seas of 4 to 6 ft due to mixed 
NW and SW swell remain over the rest of the offshore waters. 

For the forecast, relatively quiet conditions will continue over
these waters for the next few days, with seas below 8 ft. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

A cold front extends from near 30N130W southwestward to 28N140W.
High pressure of 1021 mb is centered at 27N125W.wfrom off the 
California coast across 30N126W to beyond 27N140W. Patchy rain 
and scattered showers are possible along and near the front. The 
gradient between the high and relatively lower pressure near the 
ITCZ is sustaining moderate to fresh NE to ENE trades and seas at
7 to 9 ft in long-period NW to N swell from the ITCZ to 20N and 
west of 117W. North of the ITCZ/surface trough and east of 117W, 
winds are below fresh speeds, however, seas to 8 ft in long-
period NW swell are present there. Conditions remain fairly 
quiet south of the ITCZ and trough, but seas of 6 to 8 ft in mix 
swell are noted there.
 
For the forecast, the aforementioned long-period NW to N swell 
will continue to decay through Tue, allowing seas from the ITCZ
to 20N to drop to between 6 and 8 ft by Tue night. At the same
time, a new set of large NW swell is forecast to elevate seas to
between 8 to 11 ft north of 27N and east of 131W. North winds in
the same general area will also become fresh to locally strong 
Tue night through Wed. This swell will migrate southward to near 
22N on Wed evening. Little change is expected elsewhere through 
Wed night.

$$
Aguirre