959 
AXPZ20 KNHC 181527
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Apr 18 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1515 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from eastern Panama near 08N78W to
05N98W. The ITCZ stretches from 05N98W to 06N120W and beyond
04N140W. A second ITCZ is observed from 02S115W to beyond 
07S140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 
occurring south of 07N and east of 85W. Similar convection is
present from 03N to 11N and between 105W and 137W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough over the SW United States results in
widespread cloudiness over much of western Mexico, including Baja
California Sur and the regional waters. At the surface, a 1038 mb
high pressure system centered over the North Pacific extends a
ridge southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure 
gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in
the SW United States and Mexico result in moderate to fresh northerly
winds in the offshore waters of Baja California. Seas in these 
waters are 5-7 ft. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and moderate
seas are noted in the northern and central Gulf of California,
along with seas of 3-6 ft. Light to gentle winds and slight seas
are found in the southern Gulf of California.

Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh northerly winds and 
moderate seas are evident west of 110W and in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. Light to gentle variable winds and slight to 
moderate seas prevail in the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, a modest pressure gradient result in moderate 
to fresh winds in the northern and central Gulf of California 
this morning. Winds will decrease to gentle to moderate this
afternoon. A second surge of localized fresh to strong winds are
expected tonight into early Sat, with diminishing winds expected
thereafter. Elsewhere, locally fresh NW winds will pulse 
offshore of Baja California Sur each night and morning through 
Sun, and offshore of Jalisco this weekend. Otherwise, prevailing 
ridging over the eastern Pacific will support moderate winds and 
moderate seas offshore of Baja California and southwestern Mexico
into early next week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak area of low pressure and associated surface trough is
producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms off the
coast of Colombia. A strong high pressure north of the area 
continues to support fresh to near gale-force easterly trade 
winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending westward to 
93W. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Moderate to fresh northerly
winds and moderate seas are present in the Gulf of Panama,
extending southward to 03N. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds
and moderate seas are prevalent.

The Santa Maria Volcano located in southwestern Guatemala near 
14.8N91.6W is presently undergoing continuous volcanic ash 
emissions. The volcanic ash near the volcano is moving to the 
southwest. GOES-E satellite imagery shows resultant hazy skies 
near and along the coast of Guatemala. Reduced visibility is 
possible near the coast. Mariners are encouraged to be aware of 
the latest updates on the status of the volcano. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong easterly trade winds will 
pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo through early next week as a strong
pressure gradient prevails between the Colombian low and ridging
over the eastern Gulf of America and western Atlantic. Winds may
reach near-gale force at times this morning and again tonight 
into Sat morning, and locally rough seas in E swell will 
accompany these winds. Winds are expected to diminish below
strong force by Wed. Elsewhere, pulsing fresh to locally strong 
N winds will occur in the Gulf of Panama through Sat. Looking 
ahead, a new long-period S to SW swell will propagate through the
regional waters early next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

A broad subtropical ridge over the North Pacific extends into 
the waters of the tropical eastern Pacific. Moderate to fresh 
easterly trade winds and moderate seas are noted from the ITCZ to
23N and west of 120W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
are prevalent elsewhere.

For the forecast, ridging will continue to dominate the eastern 
Pacific waters over the coming days, supporting moderate N to E 
winds north of the ITCZ into early next week. Pulsing fresh NE 
winds are expected through Sun between 05N and 20N, west of 115W.
A short-period, wind-generated E swell will promote rough seas 
in this region through early next week. Farther south, rough seas
in S swell south of the equator will subside through Sat 
morning. Looking ahead, new N swell will lead to rough seas in 
the northern waters, north of 25N, by early next week. 

$$
Delgado