000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092056
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu May 9 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
09N84W to 08N105W to a 1011 mb low pressure near 10N117W. The 
ITCZ extends from 10N117W to 06N130W to beyond 05N140W. 
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 05N to 13N
between 96W and 111W. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 07N to 13N between 84W and 91W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure is centered well N of the area. A broad
ridge extends southward from the high across the regional 
Pacific waters and weakly southeast over the offshore waters of 
Baja California to the Revillagigedo Islands. Lower pressure 
extends northward along the entire coast of California. The 
pressure gradient between the high pressure and this area of low 
pressure is generally allowing for gentle to moderate northwest 
winds over the offshore waters of Baja California N of Cabo San 
Lucas. S of Cabo San Lucas, ASCAT this afternoon confirmed moderate
to fresh northwest to north winds are noted. Seas across most of
the Baja waters are 6 to 8 ft, except 7 to 9 ft in northwest 
swell N of Punta Eugenia. Inside the Gulf of California, winds 
are light to gentle with seas 2 to 4 ft. Elsewhere over the south
and southwestern Mexican offshore waters, winds are gentle to 
moderate, west to northwest in direction. Winds become onshore 
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas range 5 to 6 ft in mixed NW
and SW swell. Thunderstorms are noted within the Gulf of Tehuantepec
offshore waters S of 13N.

For the forecast, the strong high pressure N of the local area 
will shift south and west while weakening through the weekend. 
This will maintain moderate northwest winds offshore Baja 
California N of Cabo San Lazaro, and moderate to fresh northwest 
winds S of Cabo San Lazaro through the weekend. Winds could pulse
to locally strong south of Cabo San Lucas at night. Northwest 
swell will continue to move into the Baja offshore waters through
Fri, with seas in excess of 8 ft persisting across the waters N 
through W of Punta Eugenia today before subsiding overnight. 
Gentle to locally moderate west to northwest winds along with 
moderate seas are expected elsewhere across the S and 
southwestern Mexican offshore waters through Mon night. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak pressure pattern is in place over this part of the area. 
Atmospheric moisture has substantially increased as the typical 
monsoonal circulation for this time of year becomes seasonally 
established. Satellite imagery shows scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms over most of these waters, except for 
isolated showers and thunderstorms E of 90W, mostly impacting 
the Central American offshore waters. Some of this activity may 
be accompanied by gusty winds at times and moderate to rough 
seas. Frequent lighting may also accompany the activity once it 
begins to exhibit a clustering pattern later today. Winds remain 
light and variable and seas moderate, 4 to 5 ft in S swell. 
Between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, winds are
mainly moderate from the S to SW in direction along with seas of
5 to 7 ft in S swell.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh south to southwest 
winds are expected S of 09N through Fri. This will feed moisture
into shower and thunderstorm activity currently over the Central
American waters. This activity will shift slowly westward of 90W
by Fri afternoon. Light to gentle variable winds will prevail 
elsewhere along with moderate seas in a south swell. Otherwise, 
new southerly swell entering the region will maintain seas of 6 
to 7 ft S of the Galapagos Islands through Sun, and build briefly
to near 8 ft Fri night. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong high pressure of 1034 mb is centered well N of the 
discussion area. Broad ridging extends from it southward across 
the subtropical waters between 105W and 140W. The gradient 
related to this ridge is maintaining gentle to moderate northwest
to north winds N of 24N W of 120W. Seas across this area N of 
25N are 6 to 8 ft in northwest swell, except 7 to 9 ft north of 
27N between 120W and 130W. S of 20N between the ridge and the 
ITCZ and W of 120W, moderate northeast to east winds along with 
seas of and 6 to 8 ft seas in northeast swell prevail. South of 
the ITCZ, gentle to moderate east to southeast winds are present 
as seen in overnight ASCAT data. Seas with these winds are 6 to 8
ft due to mixed southeast and southwest swell. Elsewhere, light 
to gentle variable winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, moderate trade winds over the western part of 
the tropical waters will gradually become confined to between the
ITCZ and 20N through Sun, as high pressure N of the area 
gradually weakens. Seas of 6 to 7 ft with small pockets of seas 
to 8 ft are expected across the trade winds zone through Fri, 
then subside slightly through Sun. Northwest swell across the 
Baja California Norte waters producing seas of 7 to 9 ft will 
subside below 8 ft later tonight, and to 6 ft or less on Sat.

$$
AKR