Tropical Storm ANA

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TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED APR 23 2003
 
THERE WAS A RECENT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION JUST NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER...SO ADVISORIES WILL BE CONTINUED FOR AT LEAST SIX MORE
HOURS.  THE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED AT 35 KT ALTHOUGH THE LAST REAL
EVIDENCE OF THIS SPEED WAS A 03Z SHIP REPORT.  WITH STRONG SHEAR
CONTINUING AND COLDER SSTS AHEAD...THIS SYSTEM HAS NO HOPE HAS A
TROPICAL SYSTEM.  HOWEVER SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS BRING THE SYSTEM
THROUGH THE AZORES IN ABOUT 4 DAYS AS A 30 TO 40 KT SYSTEM.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR SLIGHT WEAKENING AND THEN SLIGHT
EXTRATROPICAL STRENGTHENING AFTER 48 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 060/09.  THIS REDUCTION IN FORWARD
SPEED IS BASED ON THE LOCATION OF A RATHER POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CLOUD CENTER.  THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A
EAST-NORTHEAST TO EAST TRACK OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS WITH HIGHLY
VARYING FORWARD SPEEDS.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT
OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS BECAUSE OF THE
INITIAL MOTION.  OTHERWISE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/2100Z 32.1N  50.1W    35 KTS
12HR VT     24/0600Z 32.5N  48.6W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT     24/1800Z 33.0N  46.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     25/0600Z 33.6N  43.0W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     25/1800Z 33.9N  39.5W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     26/1800Z 34.5N  33.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
  
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