Tropical Depression SEVEN

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2003
 
THERE ARE NO STRONG WINDS EVIDENT FROM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND
DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB MIAMI AND SAB WASHINGTON ARE LOWER THAN
THEY WERE AT 18Z.  HOWEVER ON RECENT SR-88D RADAR IMAGES A BANDING
FEATURE IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED OVER THE NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OF
THE SYSTEM.  BASED ON THE 88D VELOCITY DATA...THE INTENSITY IS SET
AT 30 KT BUT THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER A VERY SMALL
AREA NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
SHEAR PREVAILS OVER THE AREA AND THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OVER
RELATIVELY COOL WATERS TO THE WEST OF THE GULF STREAM.  THEREFORE
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS UNLIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL.
 
LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR FIXES INDICATE THAT THE FORWARD SPEED HAS
SLOWED TO AN ESTIMATED 8 KT.  THE DEPRESSION IS SITUATED ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE.  THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A
GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD STEERING CURRENT OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  BASED ON THE SLOWER INITIAL MOTION...THE
OFFICIAL FORECASTS IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THE
BAM AND GFDL TRACK FORECASTS ARE EVEN SLOWER AND FARTHER WEST.
 
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS ITS POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA...
PARTICULARLY IF IT MOVES SLOWLY.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/0300Z 31.1N  80.9W    30 KT
 12HR VT     26/1200Z 32.5N  81.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     27/0000Z 34.0N  81.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     27/1200Z 35.5N  81.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     28/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
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