Hurricane FABIAN
ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 01 2003
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED FROM 6 HOURS AGO AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 120 KT...PENDING ANOTHER
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MISSION THIS AFTERNOON. WIND RADII HAVE
BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS. THE ATMOSPHERIC AND
OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF
A STRONG HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SO CHANGES IN
STRENGTH WILL PROBABLY BE DUE TO INNER CORE PROCESSES SUCH AS
EYEWALL REPLACEMENTS. AT PRESENT THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF AN
OUTER EYEWALL THAT WOULD TEMPORARILY RESULT IN WEAKENING.
THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
THINKING. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN CANADA
IS PREDICTED TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND AMPLIFY OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SHOULD
BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE THAT IS
CURRENTLY TO THE NORTH OF FABIAN...AND CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO TAKE A
MORE NORTHWARD HEADING. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS TURN...WITH THE ENSEMBLE DEFINED BY THE NOGAPS ON THE RIGHT
AND THE CANADIAN MODEL ON THE LEFT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO...BUT SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE GUNA CONSENSUS MODEL...AN
AVERAGE OF THE GFDL...UKMET...NOGAPS...AND GFS.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/1500Z 18.9N 56.8W 120 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 19.2N 58.3W 120 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 20.0N 60.2W 120 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 21.0N 62.0W 120 KT
48HR VT 03/1200Z 22.3N 63.6W 115 KT
72HR VT 04/1200Z 25.0N 66.0W 110 KT
96HR VT 05/1200Z 29.0N 68.5W 105 KT
120HR VT 06/1200Z 34.5N 69.0W 95 KT
NNNN