Hurricane FABIAN

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HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED SEP 03 2003

DATA FROM THE MOST RECENT MISSION OF THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS 
INDICATE THAT FABIAN REMAINS A POWERFUL HURRICANE...BUT MAY HAVE
WEAKENED SLIGHTLY.  MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 123 KT IN THE
NORTHEAST EYEWALL...CORRESPONDING TO BORDERLINE CAT. 3/4 INTENSITY. 
THE CURRENT MAX WINDS ARE HELD AT 115 KT...ALTHOUGH THIS MIGHT BE
SLIGHTLY GENEROUS.  THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME WESTERLY SHEAR OVER
THE AREA...AS EVIDENCED BY A LACK OF CIRRUS OUTFLOW OVER THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  ALSO...THE EYE HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT RAGGED ON
SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORT THAT IT HAS AN
ELLIPTICAL SHAPE.  GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS COULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR A LITTLE
RE-INTENSIFICATION BEFORE FABIAN REACHES COOLER WATERS. 
HOWEVER...THESE MODELS HAVE BEEN KNOW TO BE BIASED TOWARD CREATING
TOO MUCH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.  

INITIAL MOTION IS RATHER SLOW...310/7...WHICH INDICATES THAT THE
DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FABIAN HAS BEEN WEAKENING. 
HOWEVER A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED SHOULD TAKE PLACE AS THE
HURRICANE BEGINS TO MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. 
TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GRADUAL NORTHWARD TURN
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWED BY ACCELERATION TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST LATER IN THE PERIOD.  THIS WOULD BRING FABIAN
DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO BERMUDA IN 48-72 HOURS.  THEREFORE RESIDENTS
IN THAT ISLAND SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
HURRICANE.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/0900Z 21.6N  62.2W   115 KT
 12HR VT     03/1800Z 22.4N  63.0W   115 KT
 24HR VT     04/0600Z 24.0N  64.5W   110 KT
 36HR VT     04/1800Z 25.8N  65.5W   105 KT
 48HR VT     05/0600Z 28.0N  66.3W   100 KT
 72HR VT     06/0600Z 33.0N  66.0W    90 KT
 96HR VT     07/0600Z 39.0N  61.0W    80 KT
120HR VT     08/0600Z 48.0N  51.0W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 
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