Hurricane FABIAN
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HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2003
THE LATEST AIR FORCE RECON HAS REPORTED A CIRCULAR 40 NM MI RADAR
EYE. ALSO...THE PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 948 MB. THE RECON HAS JUST
FLOWN INTO THE NE QUAD AND FOUND A 110 KT FLIGHT LEVEL WIND. BASED
ON THIS...THE PRESSURE RISE AND EYE DIAMETER I AM ADJUSTING THE
INITIAL INTENSITY TO 105 KTS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 350/15. THERE IS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. FABIAN HAS
MADE SEVERAL MINOR OSCILLATIONS OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO AND WE HAVE
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK. BUT OVERALL THE SYSTEM HAS
BEEN WELL BEHAVED IN A FORECAST SENSE. FABIAN IS NOW EXPECTED TO
PASS OVER OR NEAR BERMUDA IN ABOUT 18 HOURS OR SO. BY 48
HOURS...THE HURRICANE SHOULD GET CAUGHT UP IN THE ENCROACHING
MID-LATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
NEARING THE U.S. EAST COAST AND BE ACCELERATED RAPIDLY TO THE
NORTHEAST.
SOME FLUCTUATION IN THE INTENSITY IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS HOWEVER...THESE WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED ABERRATIONS
AND SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 36 HOURS WHEN
INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR BEGINS TO TAKE ITS TOLL
ON THE CYCLONE.
PREPARATIONS IN BERMUDA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION SINCE THE
WEATHER SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE IN BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT 6
HOURS OR SO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT
BERMUDA SOME TIME THIS MORNING.
FORECASTER JARVINEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/0900Z 29.5N 65.2W 105 KT
12HR VT 05/1800Z 31.5N 65.3W 105 KT
24HR VT 06/0600Z 34.3N 64.0W 105 KT
36HR VT 06/1800Z 36.5N 61.5W 100 KT
48HR VT 07/0600Z 38.5N 58.0W 95 KT
72HR VT 08/0600Z 46.0N 47.5W 70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 09/0600Z 54.3N 30.2W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 10/0600Z 59.1N 9.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
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